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Analyzing the Hydroelectricity Variability on Power Markets from a System Dynamics and Dynamic Systems Perspective: Seasonality and ENSO Phenomenon

تحليل تقلب الطاقة الكهرومائية في أسواق الطاقة من منظور ديناميكيات النظام والأنظمة الديناميكية: الموسمية وظاهرة ENSO

descriptionPublicationkeyboard_double_arrow_right Article , Other literature type , Journal 09 May 2020Publisher:MDPI AGJournal:Energies, volume 13, page 2,381 (eissn: 1996-1073,

Authors: José D. Morcillo; Fabiola Angulo; Carlos Franco;

doi: 10.3390/en13092381 , 10.60692/w3rpc-51h67 , 10.60692/pw8yk-ywc23

Analyzing the Hydroelectricity Variability on Power Markets from a System Dynamics and Dynamic Systems Perspective: Seasonality and ENSO Phenomenon

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Abstract

In this paper, the variations in hydropower generation are addressed considering the seasonality and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) episodes. The dynamic hypothesis and the stock-flow structure of the Colombian electricity market were analyzed. Moreover, its dynamic behavior was analyzed by using Dynamic Systems tools aimed at providing deep insight into the system. The MATLAB/Simulink model was used to evaluate the Colombian electricity market. Since we combine System Dynamics and Dynamic Systems, this methodology provides a novel insight and a deeper analysis compared with System Dynamics models and can be easily implemented by policymakers to suggest improvements in regulation or market structures. We also provide a detailed description of the Colombian electricity market dynamics under a broad range of demand growth rate scenarios inspired by the bifurcation and control theory of Dynamic Systems.

Related Organizations

National University of Colombia
Colombia
University of Monterrey
Mexico
University of Monterrey
Mexico
National University of Colombia
Colombia

Keywords

Technology, Artificial intelligence, Economics, Optimal Operation of Water Resources Systems, Ocean Engineering, Dynamic demand, System dynamics, System Dynamics, Quantum mechanics, ENSO phenomenon, Electric power system, Electricity system, FOS: Economics and business, Engineering, Electricity market, Electricity, Machine learning, FOS: Electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Demand Response in Smart Grids, Hydroelectricity, Econometrics, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Hydro-Economic Models, Electricity generation, T, Physics, Electricity Market Operation and Optimization, Seasonality, system dynamics; dynamic systems; bifurcations; hydroelectricity variability; ENSO phenomenon, Power (physics), Computer science, Electrical engineering, Physical Sciences, system dynamics, Wind Power Forecasting, hydroelectricity variability, bifurcations, dynamic systems, Hydropower

Impact byBIP!

	citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	10
	popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 10%
	influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).	Average
	impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.	Top 10%