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Energies
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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Energies
Article
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Energies
Article . 2022
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Indirect Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Natural Gas Consumption by Commercial Consumers in a Selected City in Poland

Authors: Tomasz Cieślik; Piotr Narloch; Adam Szurlej; Krzysztof Kogut;

Indirect Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Natural Gas Consumption by Commercial Consumers in a Selected City in Poland

Abstract

In March 2020, a lockdown was imposed due to a global pandemic, which contributed to changes in the structure of the consumption of natural gas. Consumption in the industry and the power sector decreased while household consumption increased. There was also a noticeable decrease in natural gas consumption by commercial consumers. Based on collected data, such as temperature, wind strength, duration of weather events, and information about weather conditions on preceding days, models for forecasting gas consumption by commercial consumers (hotels, restaurants, and businesses) were designed, and the best model for determining the impact of the lockdown on gas consumption by the above-mentioned consumers was determined using the MAPE (mean absolute percentage error). The best model of artificial neural networks (ANN) gave a 2.17% MAPE error. The study found a significant decrease in gas consumption by commercial customers during the first lockdown period.

Keywords

lockdown, forecasting gas consumption; neural networks; lockdown, Technology, forecasting gas consumption, T, neural networks

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    6
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
6
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
gold