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Profitability and Revenue Uncertainty of Wind Farms in Western Europe in Present and Future Climate

Authors: Alonzo, Bastien; Concettini, Silvia; Creti, Anna; Drobinski, Philippe; Tankov, Peter;

Profitability and Revenue Uncertainty of Wind Farms in Western Europe in Present and Future Climate

Abstract

Investments into wind power generation may be hampered by the uncertainty of future revenues caused by the natural variability of the wind resource, the impact of climate change on wind potential and future electricity prices, and the regulatory risks. We quantify the uncertainty of the economic value of wind farms in France, Germany, and Denmark, and evaluate the cost of support mechanisms needed to ensure the profitability of wind farms under present and future climates. To this end, we built a localised model for wind power output and a country-level model for electricity demand and prices. Our study reveals that support mechanisms are needed for current market conditions and the current climate, as well as under future climate conditions according to several scenarios for climate change and energy transition. The cost of support mechanisms during a 15-year period is evaluated to EUR 3.8 to EUR 11.5 billion per year in France, from EUR 15.5 to EUR 26.5 billion per year in Germany, and from EUR 1.2 to EUR 3.3 billion per year in Denmark, depending on the scenario considered and the level of penetration of wind energy.

Country
France
Keywords

climate variability, net present value, Technology, Environmental and Ecological Economics::Q5 - Environmental Economics::Q54 - Climate, 550, Q.Q5.Q54, Global Warming, 333, Q.Q4.Q42, Economie de la terre et des ressources naturelles, [SDU.STU.CL] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Environmental and Ecological Economics::Q4 - Energy::Q42 - Alternative Energy Sources, [SDE.ES] Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society, wind energy, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society, Wind energy, [QFIN]Quantitative Finance [q-fin], T, [SPI.NRJ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power, Natural Disasters and Their Management, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, [QFIN] Quantitative Finance [q-fin], demand uncertainty, wind energy; climate variability; demand uncertainty; climate change; net present value, climate change, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics, [SPI.NRJ] Engineering Sciences [physics]/Electric power

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    Top 10%
    influence
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    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold