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Energies
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Energies
Article . 2022
Data sources: DOAJ
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Financial Hazard Prediction Due to Power Outages Associated with Severe Weather-Related Natural Disaster Categories

Authors: Rafal Ali; orcid bw Ikramullah Khosa;
Ikramullah Khosa
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Ikramullah Khosa in OpenAIRE
orcid Ammar Armghan;
Ammar Armghan
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Ammar Armghan in OpenAIRE
orcid Jehangir Arshad;
Jehangir Arshad
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Jehangir Arshad in OpenAIRE
Sajjad Rabbani; orcid Naif Alsharabi;
Naif Alsharabi
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Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

Naif Alsharabi in OpenAIRE
orcid Habib Hamam;
Habib Hamam
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Harvested from ORCID Public Data File

Habib Hamam in OpenAIRE

Financial Hazard Prediction Due to Power Outages Associated with Severe Weather-Related Natural Disaster Categories

Abstract

Severe weather conditions not only damage electric power infrastructure, and energy systems, but also affect millions of users, including residential, commercial or industrial consumers. Moreover, power outages due to weather-related natural disasters have been causing financial losses worth billions of US dollars. In this paper, we analyze the impact of power outages on the revenue of electric power suppliers, particularly due to the top five weather-related natural disasters. For this purpose, reliable and publicly available power outage events data are considered. The data provide the time of the outage event, the geographic region, electricity consumption and tariffs, social and economic indicators, climatological annotation, consumer category distribution, population and land area, and so forth. An exploratory analysis is carried out to reveal the impact of weather-related disasters and the associated electric power revenue risk. The top five catastrophic weather-related natural disaster categories are investigated individually to predict the related revenue loss. The most influencing parameters contributing to efficient prediction are identified and their partial dependence on revenue loss is illustrated. It was found that the electric power revenue associated with weather-related natural disasters is a function of several parameters, including outage duration, number of customers, tariffs and economic indicators. The findings of this research will help electric power suppliers estimate revenue risk, as well as authorities to make risk-informed decisions regarding the energy infrastructure and systems planning.

Keywords

Technology, electric power, T, prediction, revenue loss, severe weather disasters

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