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Energies
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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Energies
Article . 2023
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Analysing Grid-Level Effects of Photovoltaic Self-Consumption Using a Stochastic Bottom-up Model of Prosumer Systems

Authors: Karalus, Steffen; Köpfer, Benedikt; Guthke, Philipp; Killinger, Sven; Lorenz, Elke;

Analysing Grid-Level Effects of Photovoltaic Self-Consumption Using a Stochastic Bottom-up Model of Prosumer Systems

Abstract

Self-consumption of the energy generated by photovoltaics (PV) is playing an increasingly important role in the power grid. “Prosumer” systems consume part of the produced energy directly to meet the local demand, which reduces the feed-in into as well as the demand from the grid. In order to analyse the effects of PV self-consumption in the power grid, we introduce a stochastic bottom-up model of PV power generation and local consumption in the control area of the German transmission system operator TransnetBW. We set up a realistic portfolio of more than 100,000 PV/prosumer systems to generate representative time series of PV generation and consumption as a basis to derive self-consumption and feed-in. This model allows for the investigation of the time-dependent behaviour in detail for the full portfolio whereas measurements are presently only available as aggregated feed-in time series over a nonrepresentative subset of systems. We analyse the variation of self-consumption with PV generation and consumption at the portfolio level and its seasonal, weekly and diurnal cycles. Furthermore, we study a scenario of 100% prosumers as a limiting case for a situation without subsidized feed-in tariffs and local energy storage.

Keywords

PV system modelling, grid integration, Technology, photovoltaics, T, solar energy, solar energy; photovoltaics; PV power forecasting; PV system modelling; PV self-consumption; grid integration, PV power forecasting, PV self-consumption

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    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
gold
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