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International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Article . 2019 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
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Effects of Climate Change and Heterogeneity of Local Climates on the Development of Malaria Parasite (Plasmodium vivax) in Moscow Megacity Region

Authors: Varvara Mironova; Natalia Shartova; Andrei Beljaev; Mikhail Varentsov; Mikhail Grishchenko;

Effects of Climate Change and Heterogeneity of Local Climates on the Development of Malaria Parasite (Plasmodium vivax) in Moscow Megacity Region

Abstract

The article presents the results of a spatio-temporal analysis of the changes of the favorability of climatic conditions for the transmission of vivax malaria in the Moscow megacity and its surroundings during the period from 1977 to 2016. Using the historical temperature records at urban and rural weather stations, we calculated the key indicators of climate favorability for malaria transmission, viz. the sum of effective temperatures, the duration of the season of effective infectiveness, and a new integral index of climate favorability. We demonstrated a dramatic increase of all three indicators, which accelerated after 1984, and a high spatial heterogeneity among them. Due to the urban heat island effect, the degree of climatic favorability is especially high in the densely urbanized areas of Moscow megacity compared with the suburban and rural areas. Climatic conditions for vivax malaria in Moscow are better now than before. The season of effective infectiveness continues in the central part of the city for 25 days longer, and the integral index of climate favorability is 85% higher in comparison to mean values over the rural surroundings. The study contains an alert regarding the risk of malaria resurgence in the Moscow region in the case of the sufficient importation of cases from abroad.

Keywords

<i>Plasmodium vivax</i>, Climate, Climate Change, Urbanization, Temperature, urban heat island, Moscow, Article, Russia, climate change, malaria season, vivax malaria, Malaria, Vivax, Animals, Humans, Seasons, Plasmodium vivax

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
24
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
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