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Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea Peninsula

Authors: Hyun Min Sung; Jisun Kim; Sungbo Shim; Jong-Chul Ha; Young-Hwa Byun; Yeon-Hee Kim;

Sea Level Rise Drivers and Projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under the Paris Climate Targets: Global and around the Korea Peninsula

Abstract

Estimating future sea level rise (SLR) projections is important for assessing coastal risks and planning of climate-resilient infrastructure. Therefore, in this study, we estimated the future projections of SLR from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models for three climate targets (1.5 °C (T15), 2.0 °C (T20), and 3.0 °C (T30)) described by the Paris Agreement. The global SLR projections are 60, 140, and 320 mm for T15, T20, and T30, respectively, relative to the present-day levels. Similarly, around the Korean Peninsula, SLR projections become more intense with continuous global warming (20 mm (T15), 110 mm (T20), and 270 mm (T30)). Ocean variables show a slow response to climate change. Therefore, we developed the Emergence of Climate Change (EoC) index for determining the time when the variable is not following the present climate trend. The EoC of SLR appears after the EoC of sea-ice melting near the time of T15 warming. Moreover, the EoC of thermal expansion appears around the 2040s, which is similar to the time of the maximum of the T15 warming period and the median of the T20 warming period. Overall, our analysis suggests that the T15 warming may act as a trigger and SLR will accelerate after the T15 warming.

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Keywords

1.5 °C warming, Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering, VM1-989, GC1-1581, Oceanography, emergence of climate change, Korean peninsula, climate change, sea level rise

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
gold