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Production of Pig Feed under Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations: Changes in Crop Content and Chemical Composition, Land Use, Environmental Impact, and Socio-Economic Consequences

Changes in crop content and chemical composition, land use, environmental impact, and socio-economic consequences
Authors: Saxe, Henrik; Hamelin, Lorie; Hinrichsen, Torben; Wenzel, Henrik;

Production of Pig Feed under Future Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations: Changes in Crop Content and Chemical Composition, Land Use, Environmental Impact, and Socio-Economic Consequences

Abstract

With the rising atmospheric CO2, crops will assimilate more carbon. Yields will increase in terms of carbohydrates while diluting the content of protein and minerals in compound pig feed, calling for an altered formulation with more protein and less carbohydrate crops to maintain its nutritional value. Using crop response data from CO2 exposures in a linear modeling of feed formulation, we apply a consequential life cycle assessment (cLCA) to model all of the environmental impacts and socio-economic consequences that altered crop yields and chemical composition at elevated CO2 levels have on feed formulation, targeting altered amino acid contents rather than overall protein. An atmospheric CO2 of 550 µmole mole−1 gives rise to a 6% smaller demand for land use for pig feed production. However, feed produced at this CO2 must include 23% more soymeal and 5% less wheat than at present in order to keep its nutritional value. This counteracts the yield benefit. The monetized environmental cost of producing pig feed, where sunflower and soy contribute the most, equals the direct feed price in both scenarios. If external costs were internalized, honoring the Rio Declaration, feed prices would double. In contrast, the future composition of pig feed will increase the direct price by only 0.8%, while the external cost decreases by only 0.3%.

Countries
Denmark, France, France
Keywords

aliment pour animal, [SDV.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biotechnology, Consequential life cycle assessment, TJ807-830, Biotechnologies, consequential life cycle assessment, monetized environmental impact, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, modelling, Monetized environmental impact, starch (energy) crops, Starch (energy) crops, GE1-350, land-use changes (LUC), compound pig feed formulation, modélisation, CLCA, amino acids, 660, Environmental effects of industries and plants, amino acids;compound pig feed formulation;consequential life cycle assessment;cLCA;land-use changes (LUC);monetized environmental impact;protein crops;starch (energy) crops, feed, swine, [SDV.BIO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biotechnology, Environmental sciences, cLCA, Land-use changes (LUC), Protein crops, protein crops, Amino acids, Compound pig feed formulation, porc

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    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    impulse
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
7
Top 10%
Average
Average
Green
gold