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Development of Macro-Level Safety Performance Functions in the City of Naples

Authors: Montella, Alfonso; Marzano, Vittorio; Mauriello, Filomena; Vitillo, Roberta; Fasanelli, Roberto; Pernetti, Mariano; Galante, Francesco;

Development of Macro-Level Safety Performance Functions in the City of Naples

Abstract

This paper presents macro-level safety performance functions and aims to provide empirical tools for planners and engineers to conduct proactive analyses, promote more sustainable development patterns, and reduce road crashes. In the past decade, several studies have been conducted for crash modeling at a macro-level, yet in Italy, macro-level safety performance functions have neither been calibrated nor used, until now. Therefore, for Italy to be able to fully benefit from applying these models, it is necessary to calibrate the models to local conditions. Generalized linear modelling techniques were used to fit the models, and a negative binomial distribution error structure was assumed. The study used a sample of 15,254 crashes which occurred in the period of 2009–2011 in Naples, Italy. Four traffic analysis zones (TAZ) levels were used, as one of the aims of this paper is to check the extent to which these zoning levels help in addressing the issue. The models were developed by the stepwise forward procedure using explanatory Socio-Demographic (S-D), Transportation Demand Management (TDM), and Exposure variables. The most significant variables were: children and young people placed in re-education projects, population, population aged 65 and above, population aged 25 to 44, male population, total vehicle kilometers traveled, average congestion level, average speed, number of trips originating in the TAZ, number of trips ending in the TAZ, number of total trips and, number of bus stops served per hour. An important result of the study is that children and young people placed in re-education projects negatively affects the frequency of crashes, i.e., it has a positive safety effect. This demonstrates the effectiveness of education projects, especially on children from disadvantaged neighbourhoods.

Country
Italy
Keywords

Safety prediction models, Monitoring, TJ807-830, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, traffic crashes, Negative binomial; Safety prediction models; Traffic analysis zone; Traffic crashes; Geography, Planning and Development; Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment; Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, GE1-350, Renewable Energy, Planning and Development, Geography, Sustainability and the Environment, Policy and Law, Environmental effects of industries and plants, negative binomial, Management, Traffic crashes, Environmental sciences, Negative binomial, Negative binomial; Safety prediction models; Traffic analysis zone; Traffic crashes, traffic analysis zone, Traffic analysis zone, safety prediction models

  • BIP!
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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    17
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
17
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
gold