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Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts

Authors: Veijalainen, Noora; Ahopelto, Lauri; Marttunen, Mika; Jääskeläinen, Jaakko; Britschgi, Ritva; Orvomaa, Mirjam; Belinskij, Antti; +2 Authors

Severe Drought in Finland: Modeling Effects on Water Resources and Assessing Climate Change Impacts

Abstract

Severe droughts cause substantial damage to different socio-economic sectors, and even Finland, which has abundant water resources, is not immune to their impacts. To assess the implications of a severe drought in Finland, we carried out a national scale drought impact analysis. Firstly, we simulated water levels and discharges during the severe drought of 1939–1942 (the reference drought) in present-day Finland with a hydrological model. Secondly, we estimated how climate change would alter droughts. Thirdly, we assessed the impact of drought on key water use sectors, with a focus on hydropower and water supply. The results indicate that the long-lasting reference drought caused the discharges to decrease at most by 80% compared to the average annual minimum discharges. The water levels generally fell to the lowest levels in the largest lakes in Central and South-Eastern Finland. Climate change scenarios project on average a small decrease in the lowest water levels during droughts. Severe drought would have a significant impact on water-related sectors, reducing water supply and hydropower production. In this way drought is a risk multiplier for the water–energy–food security nexus. We suggest that the resilience to droughts could be improved with region-specific drought management plans and by including droughts in existing regional preparedness exercises.

Country
Finland
Keywords

kuivuus, climate changes, Preparedness, modelling (creation related to information), hydrology, drought, Hydrological modeling, Renewable energy sources, hydrological modeling, ENERGY, groundwater, Climate change, GE1-350, Groundwater, Finland, Water-energy-food security nexus, Environmental effects of industries and plants, preparedness, climate change, PRECIPITATION, hydrologia, mallintaminen, EUROPE, ta1171, TJ807-830, models (objects), TD194-195, modelling, models, Suomi, vesivarat, seuranta, ta218, FLOODS, pohjavesi, Drought, mallit, ennusteet, ilmastonmuutokset, water security, TRENDS, SIMULATIONS, Environmental sciences, PROJECTIONS, vesivoima, Water security, water-energy-food security nexus, ilmastonmuutos, vesiturvallisuus, water–energy–food security nexus

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    42
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
42
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
gold