A thorough analysis of commercial banks’ product innovation performance is essential to promoting bank product innovation capabilities and sustainable development. In this paper, the product innovation performance of commercial banks is defined as the conversion efficiency of input and output factors. The credit risk of product innovation of banks is considered as an undesirable output and incorporated in the performance evaluation system. Depending on whether there is a synchronous relationship between innovation income and risks, a Fixed Correlation model (FCM) and a Variable Correlation model (VCM) are then constructed based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method for the evaluation of commercial bank product innovation performance. In addition, an output optimization model of the objective function is also constructed to estimate the target income of commercial banks’ product innovation in the FCM and VCM. Finally, the proposed model is applied to Chinese listed commercial banks for estimating the performance and target income of product innovation.