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Prediction of Potential Evapotranspiration Using Temperature-Based Heuristic Approaches

doi: 10.3390/su13010297
The potential or reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is considered as one of the fundamental variables for irrigation management, agricultural planning, and modeling different hydrological pr°Cesses, and therefore, its accurate prediction is highly essential. The study validates the feasibility of new temperature based heuristic models (i.e., group method of data handling neural network (GMDHNN), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), and M5 model tree (M5Tree)) for estimating monthly ET0. The outcomes of the newly developed models are compared with empirical formulations including Hargreaves-Samani (HS), calibrated HS, and Stephens-Stewart (SS) models based on mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Monthly maximum and minimum temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) observed at two stations in Turkey are utilized as inputs for model development. In the applications, three data division scenarios are utilized and the effect of periodicity component (PC) on models’ accuracies are also examined. By importing PC into the model inputs, the RMSE accuracy of GMDHNN, MARS, and M5Tree models increased by 1.4%, 8%, and 6% in one station, respectively. The GMDHNN model with periodic input provides a superior performance to the other alternatives in both stations. The recommended model reduced the average error of MARS, M5Tree, HS, CHS, and SS models with respect to RMSE by 3.7–6.4%, 10.7–3.9%, 76–75%, 10–35%, and 0.8–17% in estimating monthly ET0, respectively. The HS model provides the worst accuracy while the calibrated version significantly improves its accuracy. The GMDHNN, MARS, M5Tree, SS, and CHS models are also compared in estimating monthly mean ET0. The GMDHNN generally gave the best accuracy while the CHS provides considerably over/under-estimations. The study indicated that the only one data splitting scenario may mislead the modeler and for better validation of the heuristic methods, more data splitting scenarios should be applied.
- Hohai University China (People's Republic of)
- State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering China (People's Republic of)
- State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering China (People's Republic of)
- University of Skikda Algeria
- State Key Laboratory of Hydrology Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering China (People's Republic of)
Environmental effects of industries and plants, hydrological processes, empirical formulation, TJ807-830, TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General), TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, Environmental sciences, heuristic models, water management and sustainability, potential evapotranspiration, GE1-350
Environmental effects of industries and plants, hydrological processes, empirical formulation, TJ807-830, TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General), TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, Environmental sciences, heuristic models, water management and sustainability, potential evapotranspiration, GE1-350
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).24 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
