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A Modeling and Analysis Framework for Integrated Energy Systems Exposed to Climate Change-Induced NaTech Accidental Scenarios

doi: 10.3390/su14020786
handle: 11311/1206634
This paper proposes a novel framework for the analysis of integrated energy systems (IESs) exposed to both stochastic failures and “shock” climate-induced failures, such as those characterizing NaTech accidental scenarios. With such a framework, standard centralized systems (CS), IES with distributed generation (IES-DG) and IES with bidirectional energy conversion (IES+P2G) enabled by power-to-gas (P2G) facilities can be analyzed. The framework embeds the model of each single production plant in an integrated power-flow model and then couples it with a stochastic failures model and a climate-induced failure model, which simulates the occurrence of extreme weather events (e.g., flooding) driven by climate change. To illustrate how to operationalize the analysis in practice, a case study of a realistic IES has been considered that comprises two combined cycle gas turbine plants (CCGT), a nuclear power plant (NPP), two wind farms (WF), a solar photovoltaicS (PV) field and a power-to-gas station (P2G). Results suggest that the IESs are resilient to climate-induced failures.
690, NaTech scenarios, 550, [SPI] Engineering Sciences [physics], TJ807-830, System average interruption frequency index (SAIFI), system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI), TD194-195, 333, Renewable energy sources, [SPI.ENERG] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI]Engineering Sciences [physics], [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SHS.GEST-RISQ] Humanities and Social Sciences/domain_shs.gest-risq, Climate change, Loss exceedance probability (LEP), integrated energy systems (IES); NaTech scenarios; climate change; Monte Carlo simulation; CVaR; system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI); annual failure probability (AFP); loss exceedance probability (LEP), GE1-350, [SHS.GEST-RISQ]Humanities and Social Sciences/domain_shs.gest-risq, annual failure probability (AFP), Monte Carlo simulation, Environmental effects of industries and plants, Annual failure probability (AFP), Environmental sciences, loss exceedance probability (LEP), Integrated energy systems (IES), climate change, integrated energy systems (IES), CVaR
690, NaTech scenarios, 550, [SPI] Engineering Sciences [physics], TJ807-830, System average interruption frequency index (SAIFI), system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI), TD194-195, 333, Renewable energy sources, [SPI.ENERG] Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SPI]Engineering Sciences [physics], [SPI.ENERG]Engineering Sciences [physics]/domain_spi.energ, [SHS.GEST-RISQ] Humanities and Social Sciences/domain_shs.gest-risq, Climate change, Loss exceedance probability (LEP), integrated energy systems (IES); NaTech scenarios; climate change; Monte Carlo simulation; CVaR; system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI); annual failure probability (AFP); loss exceedance probability (LEP), GE1-350, [SHS.GEST-RISQ]Humanities and Social Sciences/domain_shs.gest-risq, annual failure probability (AFP), Monte Carlo simulation, Environmental effects of industries and plants, Annual failure probability (AFP), Environmental sciences, loss exceedance probability (LEP), Integrated energy systems (IES), climate change, integrated energy systems (IES), CVaR
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