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Forecasting the Effect of Migrants’ Remittances on Household Expenditure: COVID-19 Impact

doi: 10.3390/su14074361
The unexpected pandemic has provoked changes in all economic sectors worldwide. COVID-19 has had a direct and indirect effect on countries’ development. Thus, the pandemic limits the movements of labour forces among countries, restricting migrants’ remittances. In addition, it provokes the reorientation of consumer behaviour and changes in household expenditure. For developing countries, migrant remittances are one of the core drivers for improving household wellbeing. Therefore, the paper aims to analyse how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected household expenditure in Ukraine, as being representative of a developing country. For this purpose, the data series were compiled for 2010 to the second quarter of 2021. The data sources were as follows: Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, The World Bank, and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The core variables were as follows: migrants’ remittances and expenditure of households by the types. The following methods were applied to achieve the paper’s aims: the Dickey–Fuller Test Unit Root and the ARIMA model. The findings confirmed that COVID-19 has changed the structure of household expenditure in Ukraine. Considering the forecast of household expenditure until 2026, it was shown that due to changes in migrants’ remittances, household expenditure in all categories tends to increase. The forecasted findings concluded that household expenditure on transport had the most significant growth due to changing migrants’ remittances.
- Fujian Normal University China (People's Republic of)
- Sumy State University Ukraine
- Sumy State University Ukraine
- Fujian Normal University(福建师范大学) China (People's Republic of)
- Henan Institute of Science and Technology China (People's Republic of)
expenditure, Environmental effects of industries and plants, pandemic, consumer, COVID-19, TJ807-830, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, behaviour, household, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, consumption
expenditure, Environmental effects of industries and plants, pandemic, consumer, COVID-19, TJ807-830, TD194-195, Renewable energy sources, behaviour, household, Environmental sciences, GE1-350, consumption
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).27 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
