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Regional Flood Frequency Analysis of the Sava River in South-Eastern Europe

doi: 10.3390/su14159282
handle: 20.500.12556/RUL-140940
Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is a powerful method for interrogating hydrological series since it combines observational time series from several sites within a region to estimate risk-relevant statistical parameters with higher accuracy than from single-site series. Since RFFA extreme value estimates depend on the shape of the selected distribution of the data-generating stochastic process, there is need for a suitable goodness-of-distributional-fit measure in order to optimally utilize given data. Here we present a novel, least-squares-based measure to select the optimal fit from a set of five distributions, namely Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic, Gumbel, Log-Normal Type III and Log-Pearson Type III. The fit metric is applied to annual maximum discharge series from six hydrological stations along the Sava River in South-eastern Europe, spanning the years 1961 to 2020. Results reveal that (1) the Sava River basin can be assessed as hydrologically homogeneous and (2) the GEV distribution provides typically the best fit. We offer hydrological-meteorological insights into the differences among the six stations. For the period studied, almost all stations exhibit statistically insignificant trends, which renders the conclusions about flood risk as relevant for hydrological sciences and the design of regional flood protection infrastructure.
- Climate Risk Analysis (Germany) Germany
- University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences Serbia
- MANFRED MUDELSEE Germany
- Climate Risk Analysis (Germany) Germany
- "UNIVERZA V LJUBLJANI Slovenia
regional flood frequency analysis, discharge time series; flood risk analysis; Generalized Extreme Value distribution; <i>L</i>-moments estimation; regional flood frequency analysis; Sava River, generalizirana porazdelitev ekstremnih vrednosti, flood risk analysis, TJ807-830, TD194-195, generalized extreme value distribution, Renewable energy sources, L-moments estimation, Regional flood frequency analysis, GE1-350, Flood risk analysis, časovne serije pretokov, Environmental effects of industries and plants, ddc:550, Generalized Extreme Value distribution, verjetnostna analiza poplav, <i>L</i>-moments estimation, Environmental sciences, info:eu-repo/classification/udc/556, Institut für Geowissenschaften, Discharge time series, discharge time series, Sava River
regional flood frequency analysis, discharge time series; flood risk analysis; Generalized Extreme Value distribution; <i>L</i>-moments estimation; regional flood frequency analysis; Sava River, generalizirana porazdelitev ekstremnih vrednosti, flood risk analysis, TJ807-830, TD194-195, generalized extreme value distribution, Renewable energy sources, L-moments estimation, Regional flood frequency analysis, GE1-350, Flood risk analysis, časovne serije pretokov, Environmental effects of industries and plants, ddc:550, Generalized Extreme Value distribution, verjetnostna analiza poplav, <i>L</i>-moments estimation, Environmental sciences, info:eu-repo/classification/udc/556, Institut für Geowissenschaften, Discharge time series, discharge time series, Sava River
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