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Regional Flood Frequency Analysis of the Sava River in South-Eastern Europe

Authors: Igor Leščešen; Mojca Šraj; Biljana Basarin; Dragoslav Pavić; Minučer Mesaroš; Manfred Mudelsee;

Regional Flood Frequency Analysis of the Sava River in South-Eastern Europe

Abstract

Regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is a powerful method for interrogating hydrological series since it combines observational time series from several sites within a region to estimate risk-relevant statistical parameters with higher accuracy than from single-site series. Since RFFA extreme value estimates depend on the shape of the selected distribution of the data-generating stochastic process, there is need for a suitable goodness-of-distributional-fit measure in order to optimally utilize given data. Here we present a novel, least-squares-based measure to select the optimal fit from a set of five distributions, namely Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), Generalized Logistic, Gumbel, Log-Normal Type III and Log-Pearson Type III. The fit metric is applied to annual maximum discharge series from six hydrological stations along the Sava River in South-eastern Europe, spanning the years 1961 to 2020. Results reveal that (1) the Sava River basin can be assessed as hydrologically homogeneous and (2) the GEV distribution provides typically the best fit. We offer hydrological-meteorological insights into the differences among the six stations. For the period studied, almost all stations exhibit statistically insignificant trends, which renders the conclusions about flood risk as relevant for hydrological sciences and the design of regional flood protection infrastructure.

Countries
Germany, Slovenia
Keywords

regional flood frequency analysis, discharge time series; flood risk analysis; Generalized Extreme Value distribution; <i>L</i>-moments estimation; regional flood frequency analysis; Sava River, generalizirana porazdelitev ekstremnih vrednosti, flood risk analysis, TJ807-830, TD194-195, generalized extreme value distribution, Renewable energy sources, L-moments estimation, Regional flood frequency analysis, GE1-350, Flood risk analysis, časovne serije pretokov, Environmental effects of industries and plants, ddc:550, Generalized Extreme Value distribution, verjetnostna analiza poplav, <i>L</i>-moments estimation, Environmental sciences, info:eu-repo/classification/udc/556, Institut für Geowissenschaften, Discharge time series, discharge time series, Sava River

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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