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Post-Processing of Stream Flows in Switzerland with an Emphasis on Low Flows and Floods

Authors: Bogner Konrad; Liechti Katharina; Zappa Massimiliano;

Post-Processing of Stream Flows in Switzerland with an Emphasis on Low Flows and Floods

Abstract

Post-processing has received much attention during the last couple of years within the hydrological community, and many different methods have been developed and tested, especially in the field of flood forecasting. Apart from the different meanings of the phrase “post-processing” in meteorology and hydrology, in this paper, it is regarded as a method to correct model outputs (predictions) based on meteorological (1) observed input data, (2) deterministic forecasts (single time series) and (3) ensemble forecasts (multiple time series) and to derive predictive uncertainties. So far, the majority of the research has been related to floods, how to remove bias and improve the forecast accuracy and how to minimize dispersion errors. Given that global changes are driving climatic forces, there is an urgent need to improve the quality of low-flow predictions, as well, even in regions that are normally less prone to drought. For several catchments in Switzerland, different post-processing methods were tested with respect to low stream flow and flooding conditions. The complexity of the applied procedures ranged from simple AR processes to more complex methodologies combining wavelet transformations and Quantile Regression Neural Networks (QRNN) and included the derivation of predictive uncertainties. Furthermore, various verification methods were tested in order to quantify the possible improvements that could be gained by applying these post-processing procedures based on different stream flow conditions. Preliminary results indicate that there is no single best method, but with an increase of complexity, a significant improvement of the quality of the predictions can be achieved.

Keywords

error correction; forecasts; floods; droughts; wavelets; neural nets; quantile regression; predictive uncertainty

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
33
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
gold