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Environmental change and Rift Valley fever in eastern Africa: projecting beyond HEALTHY FUTURES

doi: 10.4081/gh.2016.387
pmid: 27063733
Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF), a relatively recently emerged zoonosis endemic to large parts of sub-Saharan Africa that has the potential to spread beyond the continent, have profound health and socio-economic impacts, particularly in communities where resilience is already low. Here output from a new, dynamic disease model [the Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model], driven by downscaled, bias-corrected climate change data from an ensemble of global circulation models from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project run according to two radiative forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5], is combined with results of a spatial assessment of social vulnerability to the disease in eastern Africa. The combined approach allowed for analyses of spatial and temporal variations in the risk of RVF to the end of the current century. Results for both scenarios highlight the high-risk of future RVF outbreaks, including in parts of eastern Africa to date unaffected by the disease. The results also highlight the risk of spread from/to countries adjacent to the study area, and possibly farther afield, and the value of considering the geography of future projections of disease risk. Based on the results, there is a clear need to remain vigilant and to invest not only in surveillance and early warning systems, but also in addressing the socio-economic factors that underpin social vulnerability in order to mitigate, effectively, future impacts.
- National University of Singapore Singapore
- University of Liverpool (Chemistry Department)
- National Institute for Health Research United Kingdom
- National Institute for Health Research United Kingdom
- Department of Geography National University Singapore Singapore
Rift Valley Fever, Climate Change, Vulnerable Populations, East African Community, Disease Outbreaks, Zoonosis, Risk Factors, Climate change, Animals, Humans, Infectious disease, Geography (General), Geography, Africa, Eastern, Models, Theoretical, Health, Population Surveillance, G1-922
Rift Valley Fever, Climate Change, Vulnerable Populations, East African Community, Disease Outbreaks, Zoonosis, Risk Factors, Climate change, Animals, Humans, Infectious disease, Geography (General), Geography, Africa, Eastern, Models, Theoretical, Health, Population Surveillance, G1-922
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