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Benchmarking of Different Approaches to Forecast Solar Irradiance

Authors: Pozo Vázquez, David; Remund, Jan; Müller, Stefan C.; Traunmüller, Wolfgang; Steinmaurer, Gerald; Pozo Vázquez, D.; Ruiz Arias, Jose Antonio; +6 Authors

Benchmarking of Different Approaches to Forecast Solar Irradiance

Abstract

Power generation from photovoltaic systems is highly variable due to its dependence on meteorological conditions. An efficient use of this fluctuating energy source requires reliable forecast information for management and operation strategies. Due to the strong increase of solar power generation the prediction of solar yields becomes more and more important. As a consequence, in the last years various research organisations and companies have developed different methods to forecast irradiance as a basis for respective power forecasts. For the end-users of these forecasts it is important that standardized methodology is used when presenting results on the accuracy of a prediction model in order to get a clear idea on the advantages of a specific approach. In this paper we introduce a benchmarking procedure to asses the accuracy of irradiance forecasts and compare different approaches of forecasting. The evaluation shows a strong dependence of the forecast accuracy on the climatic conditions. For Central European stations the relative rmse ranges from 40 % to 60 %, for Spanish stations relative rmse values are in the range of 20 % to 35 %.

24th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, 21-25 September 2009, Hamburg, Germany; 4199-4208

Country
Spain
Keywords

PV Power Plants, PV System, Solar radiation, Grid-connected, Solar Radiation, Forecasting, PV Systems

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
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96
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37
42
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