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Benchmarking of Different Approaches to Forecast Solar Irradiance
Power generation from photovoltaic systems is highly variable due to its dependence on meteorological conditions. An efficient use of this fluctuating energy source requires reliable forecast information for management and operation strategies. Due to the strong increase of solar power generation the prediction of solar yields becomes more and more important. As a consequence, in the last years various research organisations and companies have developed different methods to forecast irradiance as a basis for respective power forecasts. For the end-users of these forecasts it is important that standardized methodology is used when presenting results on the accuracy of a prediction model in order to get a clear idea on the advantages of a specific approach. In this paper we introduce a benchmarking procedure to asses the accuracy of irradiance forecasts and compare different approaches of forecasting. The evaluation shows a strong dependence of the forecast accuracy on the climatic conditions. For Central European stations the relative rmse ranges from 40 % to 60 %, for Spanish stations relative rmse values are in the range of 20 % to 35 %.
24th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference, 21-25 September 2009, Hamburg, Germany; 4199-4208
- University of Bern Switzerland
- University of Maine United States
- United States Department of Energy United States
- University of Maine United States
- University of Jaén Spain
PV Power Plants, PV System, Solar radiation, Grid-connected, Solar Radiation, Forecasting, PV Systems
PV Power Plants, PV System, Solar radiation, Grid-connected, Solar Radiation, Forecasting, PV Systems
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).96 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 1% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% visibility views 37 download downloads 42 - 37views42downloads
Data source Views Downloads Archivo Climatológico y Meteorológico Institucional de AEMET 37 42


