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Gaussian Process Regression for Probabilistic Short-term Solar Output Forecast
With increasing concerns of climate change, renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) have gained popularity as a means of energy generation. The smooth integration of such resources in power system operations is enabled by accurate forecasting mechanisms that address their inherent intermittency and variability. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to predict short-term PV output taking into account the uncertainty of weather. To this end, we make use of datasets that comprise of power output and meteorological data such as irradiance, temperature, zenith, and azimuth. First, we categorise the data into four groups based on solar output and time by using k-means clustering. Next, a correlation study is performed to choose the weather features which affect solar output to a greater extent. Finally, we determine a function that relates the aforementioned selected features with solar output by using Gaussian Process Regression and Matern 5/2 as a kernel function. We validate our method with five solar generation plants in different locations and compare the results with existing methodologies. More specifically, in order to test the proposed model, two different methods are used: (i) 5-fold cross-validation; and (ii) holding out 30 random days as test data. To confirm the model accuracy, we apply our framework 30 independent times on each of the four clusters. The average error follows a normal distribution, and with 95% confidence level, it takes values between -1.6% to 1.4%.
- University of London United Kingdom
- UNIVERSITY OF LONDON United Kingdom
- University of London United Kingdom
- UNIVERSITY OF LONDON United Kingdom
QA75, Signal Processing (eess.SP), FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, TK, Statistics - Applications, Machine Learning (cs.LG), FOS: Electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Applications (stat.AP), Electrical Engineering and Systems Science - Signal Processing
QA75, Signal Processing (eess.SP), FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, TK, Statistics - Applications, Machine Learning (cs.LG), FOS: Electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Applications (stat.AP), Electrical Engineering and Systems Science - Signal Processing
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).0 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Average influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Average impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Average
