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Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Authors: David A. Plummer; Larry W. Horowitz; Oliver Wild; Ruth M. Doherty; Drew Shindell; Dan Bergmann; Vaishali Naik; +28 Authors

Pre-industrial to end 21st century projections of tropospheric ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

Abstract

Abstract. Present day tropospheric ozone and its changes between 1850 and 2100 are considered, analysing 15 global models that participated in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). The multi-model mean compares well against present day observations. The seasonal cycle correlates well, except for some locations in the tropical upper troposphere. Most (75%) of the models are encompassed with a range of global mean tropospheric ozone column estimates from satellite data, although there is a suggestion of a high bias in the Northern Hemisphere and a low bias in the Southern Hemisphere. Compared to the present day multi-model mean tropospheric ozone burden of 337 Tg, the multi-model mean burden for 1850 time slice is ~ 30% lower. Future changes were modelled using emissions and climate projections from four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Compared to 2000, the relative changes for the tropospheric ozone burden in 2030 (2100) for the different RCPs are: −5% (−22%) for RCP2.6, 3% (−8%) for RCP4.5, 0% (−9%) for RCP6.0, and 5% (15%) for RCP8.5. Model agreement on the magnitude of the change is greatest for larger changes. Reductions in precursor emissions are common across the RCPs and drive ozone decreases in all but RCP8.5, where doubled methane and a larger stratospheric influx increase ozone. Models with high ozone abundances for the present day also have high ozone levels for the other time slices, but there are no models consistently predicting large or small changes. Spatial patterns of ozone changes are well correlated across most models, but are notably different for models without time evolving stratospheric ozone concentrations. A unified approach to ozone budget specifications is recommended to help future studies attribute ozone changes and inter-model differences more clearly.

Countries
Norway, France, United Kingdom, France, Norway, France, Germany
Keywords

model evaluation, 550, 290, QC1-999, MULTIMODEL ASSESSMENT, METHANE EMISSION CONTROLS, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, TROPOPAUSE HEIGHT, GLOBAL LIGHTNING DISTRIBUTIONS, QD1-999, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, STRATOSPHERIC OZONE, Physics, 500, NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION, FUTURE CHANGES, modeling, chemistry-climate, [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, AIR-POLLUTION TRANSPORT, ozone, Chemistry, climate change, SURFACE OZONE, ISOPRENE EMISSIONS, Dynamik der Atmosphäre, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
514
Top 0.1%
Top 1%
Top 1%