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Satellite quantification of methane emissions and oil/gas methane intensities from individual countries in the Middle East and North Africa: implications for climate action

القياس الكمي عبر الأقمار الصناعية لانبعاثات الميثان وكثافة الميثان النفطي/الغازي من فرادى البلدان في الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا: الآثار المترتبة على العمل المناخي
Authors: Zichong Chen; Daniel Jacob; Ritesh Gautam; Mark Omara; Robert N. Stavins; Robert C. Stowe; Hannah Nesser; +8 Authors

Satellite quantification of methane emissions and oil/gas methane intensities from individual countries in the Middle East and North Africa: implications for climate action

Abstract

Abstract. We use 2019 TROPOMI satellite observations of atmospheric methane in an analytical inversion to quantify methane emissions from the Middle East and North Africa at up to ~25 km × 25 km resolution, using spatially allocated national UNFCCC reports as prior estimates for the fuel sector. Our resulting best estimate of anthropogenic emissions for the region is 35 % higher than the prior bottom-up estimate (+103 % for gas, +53 % for waste, +49 % for livestock, −14 % for oil) with large variability across countries. Oil and gas account for 38 % of total anthropogenic emissions in the region. TROPOMI observations can effectively optimize and separate national emissions by sector for most of the 23 countries in the region, with 6 countries accounting for most of total anthropogenic emissions including Iran (5.3 (5.0–5.5) Tg a−1; best estimate and uncertainty range), Turkmenistan (4.4 (2.8–5.1) Tg a−1), Saudi Arabia (4.3 (2.4–6.0) Tg a−1), Algeria (3.5 (2.4–4.4) Tg a−1), Egypt (3.4 (2.5–4.0) Tg a−1) , and Turkey (3.0 (2.0–4.1) Tg a−1). Most oil/gas emissions are from the production (upstream) subsector, but Iran, Turkmenistan, and Saudi Arabia have large gas emissions from transmission and distribution subsectors. We identify a high number of annual oil/gas emission hotspots in Turkmenistan, Algeria, Oman, and offshore in the Persian Gulf. We show that oil/gas methane emissions for individual countries are not related to production, invalidating a basic premise in the construction of activity-based bottom-up inventories. Instead, local infrastructure and management practices appear to be key drivers of oil/gas emissions, emphasizing the need for including top-down information from atmospheric observations in the construction of oil/gas emission inventories. We examined the methane intensity, defined as the upstream oil/gas emission per unit of methane gas produced, as a measure of the potential for decreasing emissions from the oil/gas sector, and using as reference the 0.2 % target set by industry. We find that the methane intensity in most countries is considerably higher than this target, reflecting leaky infrastructure combined with deliberate venting or incomplete flaring of gas. However, we also find that Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar meet the industry target and thus show that the target is achievable through capture of associated gas, modern infrastructure, and concentration of operations. Decreasing methane intensities across the Middle East and North Africa to 0.2 % would achieve a 90 % decrease in oil/gas upstream emissions and a 26 % decrease of total anthropogenic methane emissions in the region, making a significant contribution toward the Global Methane Pledge.

Keywords

Atmospheric Science, Atmospheric sciences, Emission inventory, QC1-999, Organic chemistry, Stratospheric Chemistry and Climate Change Impacts, Oceanography, Environmental protection, Greenhouse gas, Emission Modeling, Environmental science, Middle East, Meteorology, Atmospheric Aerosols and their Impacts, Climate change, Environmental Chemistry, QD1-999, Atmospheric Composition, Climatology, Global and Planetary Change, Methane emissions, Atmospheric methane, Geography, Physics, Fossil fuel, Geology, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Air quality index, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Chemistry, Satellite Observations, Archaeology, Anaerobic Methane Oxidation and Gas Hydrates, Emissions, Global Methane Emissions and Impacts, Environmental Science, Physical Sciences, Methane

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    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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    influence
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
10
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
hybrid