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Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity, and aridity: the case of Kenya

ربط آثار الجفاف المبلغ عنها بمؤشرات الجفاف وندرة المياه والجفاف: حالة كينيا
Authors: M. R. Lam; M. R. Lam; A. Matanó; A. F. Van Loon; R. A. Odongo; A. D. Teklesadik; C. N. Wamucii; +3 Authors

Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity, and aridity: the case of Kenya

Abstract

Abstract. The relation between drought severity, as expressed through widely used drought indices, and drought impacts is complex. In particular in water-limited regions where water scarcity is prevalent, the attribution of drought impacts is difficult. This study assesses the relation between reported drought impacts, drought indices, water scarcity, and aridity across several counties in Kenya. The monthly bulletins of the National Drought Management Authority in Kenya have been used to gather drought impact data. A Random Forest (RF) model was used to explore which set of drought indices best explains drought impacts on: pasture, livestock deaths, milk production, crop losses, food insecurity, trekking distance for water, and malnutrition. The findings of this study suggest a relation between drought severity and the frequency of drought impacts, whereby the latter also showed a relation with aridity, whilst water scarcity did not. The results of the RF model reveal that drought impacts can be explained by a range of drought indices across regions with different aridity. While the findings strongly depend on the availability of drought impact data and the socio-economic circumstances within a region, this study highlights the potential of linking drought indices with text-based impact reports. In doing so, however, spatial differences in aridity and water scarcity conditions have to be taken into account.

Keywords

Water resources, Water scarcity, Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture, Arid, Economics, Precipitation, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Water supply, Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Rangeland Degradation and Pastoral Livelihoods, Microeconomics, Climate change, GE1-350, TD1-1066, Water Science and Technology, Climatology, QE1-996.5, Global and Planetary Change, Evapotranspiration, Geography, Scarcity, Ecology, Life Sciences, Agriculture, Geology, Water resource management, World Wide Web, Hydrological Modeling and Water Resource Management, Archaeology, Physical Sciences, Index (typography), Cartography, Drainage basin, Environmental engineering, Streamflow, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Environmental science, G, Meteorology, Aridity index, Life Science, Agroforestry, Biology, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Drought, FOS: Environmental engineering, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Computer science, Environmental sciences, FOS: Biological sciences, Global Drought Monitoring and Assessment, Environmental Science

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    15
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
15
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold