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Linking reported drought impacts with drought indices, water scarcity, and aridity: the case of Kenya
Abstract. The relation between drought severity, as expressed through widely used drought indices, and drought impacts is complex. In particular in water-limited regions where water scarcity is prevalent, the attribution of drought impacts is difficult. This study assesses the relation between reported drought impacts, drought indices, water scarcity, and aridity across several counties in Kenya. The monthly bulletins of the National Drought Management Authority in Kenya have been used to gather drought impact data. A Random Forest (RF) model was used to explore which set of drought indices best explains drought impacts on: pasture, livestock deaths, milk production, crop losses, food insecurity, trekking distance for water, and malnutrition. The findings of this study suggest a relation between drought severity and the frequency of drought impacts, whereby the latter also showed a relation with aridity, whilst water scarcity did not. The results of the RF model reveal that drought impacts can be explained by a range of drought indices across regions with different aridity. While the findings strongly depend on the availability of drought impact data and the socio-economic circumstances within a region, this study highlights the potential of linking drought indices with text-based impact reports. In doing so, however, spatial differences in aridity and water scarcity conditions have to be taken into account.
- Wageningen University & Research Netherlands
- Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam Netherlands
- National Drought Management Authority Kenya
- National Drought Management Authority Kenya
- Wageningen Univesity & Research Netherlands
Water resources, Water scarcity, Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture, Arid, Economics, Precipitation, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Water supply, Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Rangeland Degradation and Pastoral Livelihoods, Microeconomics, Climate change, GE1-350, TD1-1066, Water Science and Technology, Climatology, QE1-996.5, Global and Planetary Change, Evapotranspiration, Geography, Scarcity, Ecology, Life Sciences, Agriculture, Geology, Water resource management, World Wide Web, Hydrological Modeling and Water Resource Management, Archaeology, Physical Sciences, Index (typography), Cartography, Drainage basin, Environmental engineering, Streamflow, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Environmental science, G, Meteorology, Aridity index, Life Science, Agroforestry, Biology, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Drought, FOS: Environmental engineering, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Computer science, Environmental sciences, FOS: Biological sciences, Global Drought Monitoring and Assessment, Environmental Science
Water resources, Water scarcity, Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture, Arid, Economics, Precipitation, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Water supply, Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Rangeland Degradation and Pastoral Livelihoods, Microeconomics, Climate change, GE1-350, TD1-1066, Water Science and Technology, Climatology, QE1-996.5, Global and Planetary Change, Evapotranspiration, Geography, Scarcity, Ecology, Life Sciences, Agriculture, Geology, Water resource management, World Wide Web, Hydrological Modeling and Water Resource Management, Archaeology, Physical Sciences, Index (typography), Cartography, Drainage basin, Environmental engineering, Streamflow, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Environmental science, G, Meteorology, Aridity index, Life Science, Agroforestry, Biology, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Drought, FOS: Environmental engineering, FOS: Earth and related environmental sciences, Computer science, Environmental sciences, FOS: Biological sciences, Global Drought Monitoring and Assessment, Environmental Science
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