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A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Abstract. To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. nature’s contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.
- University of Minnesota System United States
- University College London United Kingdom
- Roma Tre University Italy
- University of Maryland, College Park United States
- University of Queensland Australia
Simpler Model, 550, CARBON-CYCLE MODELS, RANGE SHIFTS, Ecosystem modeling, Environmental Systems Analysis Group, 910, 1900 Earth and Planetary Sciences, Terrestrial Biodiversity, Carbon-cycle models; terrestrial biodiversity; species distribution; global biodiversity; atmoshere-ocean; simpler model; range switch; impacts; vegetation; future, TERRESTRIAL BIODIVERSITY, [SDE.ES] Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society, SPECIES DISTRIBUTION, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, Leerstoelgroep Milieusysteemanalyse, Future, Land use change, Environmental planning, SDG 15 - Life on Land, QE1-996.5, Multidisciplinary, ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN, Carbon-Cycle Models, Species Distribution, Geology, Biodiversity, 2611 Modelling and Simulation, Impacts, Milieusysteemanalyse, international, Physical Sciences, Geosciences, IMPACTS, Conservation status, Ecosystem service, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, 04 Earth Sciences, Earth and Planetary Sciences(all), 333, LPJ-GUESS, Intergovernmental panel on climate change, FUTURE, Modelling and Simulation, Life Science, IPBES, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society, Range Shifts, Vegetation, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, Science & Technology, ddc:550, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Earth sciences, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Environmental Systems Analysis, GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY, Atmosphere-Ocean, Global Biodiversity, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Strategic approach, VEGETATION, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, SIMPLER MODEL
Simpler Model, 550, CARBON-CYCLE MODELS, RANGE SHIFTS, Ecosystem modeling, Environmental Systems Analysis Group, 910, 1900 Earth and Planetary Sciences, Terrestrial Biodiversity, Carbon-cycle models; terrestrial biodiversity; species distribution; global biodiversity; atmoshere-ocean; simpler model; range switch; impacts; vegetation; future, TERRESTRIAL BIODIVERSITY, [SDE.ES] Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society, SPECIES DISTRIBUTION, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Climate change, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, Leerstoelgroep Milieusysteemanalyse, Future, Land use change, Environmental planning, SDG 15 - Life on Land, QE1-996.5, Multidisciplinary, ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN, Carbon-Cycle Models, Species Distribution, Geology, Biodiversity, 2611 Modelling and Simulation, Impacts, Milieusysteemanalyse, international, Physical Sciences, Geosciences, IMPACTS, Conservation status, Ecosystem service, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, 04 Earth Sciences, Earth and Planetary Sciences(all), 333, LPJ-GUESS, Intergovernmental panel on climate change, FUTURE, Modelling and Simulation, Life Science, IPBES, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environment and Society, Range Shifts, Vegetation, info:eu-repo/classification/ddc/550, Science & Technology, ddc:550, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, [SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Earth sciences, [SDE.MCG] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Environmental Systems Analysis, GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY, Atmosphere-Ocean, Global Biodiversity, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Strategic approach, VEGETATION, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, SIMPLER MODEL
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