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Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north

Authors: Jansson, Roland; Nilsson, Christer; Keskitalo, E. Carina H.; Vlasova, Tatiana; Sutinen, Marja-Liisa; Moen, Jon; Chapin III, F. Stuart; +8 Authors

Future changes in the supply of goods and services from natural ecosystems: prospects for the European north

Abstract

Humans depend on services provided by ecosystems, and how services are affected by climate change is increasingly studied. Few studies, however, address changes likely to affect services from seminatural ecosystems. We analyzed ecosystem goods and services in natural and seminatural systems, specifically how they are expected to change as a result of projected climate change during the 21st century. We selected terrestrial and freshwater systems in northernmost Europe, where climate is anticipated to change more than the global average, and identified likely changes in ecosystem services and their societal consequences. We did this by assembling experts from ecology, social science, and cultural geography in workshops, and we also performed a literature review. Results show that most ecosystem services are affected by multiple factors, often acting in opposite directions. Out of 14 services considered, 8 are expected to increase or remain relatively unchanged in supply, and 6 are expected to decrease. Although we do not predict collapse or disappearance of any of the investigated services, the effects of climate change in conjunction with potential economical and societal changes may exceed the adaptive capacity of societies. This may result in societal reorganization and changes in ways that ecosystems are used. Significant uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the forecast make specific conclusions about societal responses to safeguard human well-being questionable. Adapting to changes in ecosystem services will therefore require consideration of uncertainties and complexities in both social and ecological responses. The scenarios presented here provide a framework for future studies exploring such issues.

Countries
Norway, Finland, Sweden
Keywords

VDP::Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Ecology: 488, :Mathematics and natural science: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Ecology: 488 [VDP], 330, QH301-705.5, ta1172, VDP::Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480::Økologi: 488, :Matematikk og Naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480::Økologi: 488 [VDP], reindeer husbandry, Biology (General), QH540-549.5, biodiversity, Ekologi, Ecology, forestry, Barents Region, Miljövetenskap, game species, outdoor recreation, outdoor creation, climate change, social-ecological systems, ecosystem services, Environmental Sciences, barents region

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    28
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
28
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
gold