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Le scepticisme climatique dans l’opinion publique au Canada : une analyse empirique

Authors: Basillais, Audrey;

Le scepticisme climatique dans l’opinion publique au Canada : une analyse empirique

Abstract

Le Canada est le cinquième plus grand émetteur de gaz à effet de serre (GES) par habitant au monde et le quatrième plus grand producteur de pétrole brut. Il joue donc un rôle important dans la lutte aux changements climatiques. Considérant que les changements climatiques sont de plus en plus polarisant et politisés et que l’opinion publique peut représenter un frein important à l’action climatique, cette étude a pour objectif de dresser un portrait du scepticisme climatique au Canada. À l’aide d’une analyse en composantes principales, nous avons pu identifier quatre types de climato-sceptiques au Canada, soient les sceptiques anthropogénique (remettent en doute l’existence des changements climatiques anthropogéniques), d’impact (doutent que les changements climatiques aient des conséquences négatives pour eux ou pour autrui), de réponse (remettent en doute les capacités humaines et sociales à atténuer les effets de changements climatiques) et de responsabilité (doutent que le Canada ait une part de responsabilité dans les changements climatiques et minimisent le rôle qu’il devrait jouer dans la lutte). En nous appuyant sur des modèles de régressions linéaires et la technique des graphes orientés acycliques (GOA), nous avons dressé le profil sociodémographique des différents types de climato-sceptiques au Canada. Ainsi, nous avons découvert que les trois premières formes de scepticisme (anthropogénique, d’impact et de réponse) sont fortement corrélées et partagent plusieurs caractéristiques sociodémographiques. Ils ont plus de chance d’être de sexe masculin, d’être plus âgés, d’être moins éduqués, de vivre en zone rurale et d’être associés aux valeurs et aux partis politiques de droite. De plus, ce mémoire est le premier à révéler la présence de scepticisme de responsabilité au Canada. Nous constatons que le scepticisme de responsabilité s’appuie sur les mêmes arguments que les groupes de pression conservateurs qui ont pour objectif d’entraver et de ralentir la mise en place de politique climatique. Le scepticisme de responsabilité se démarque, car il s’agit de la forme de scepticisme climatique la plus répandue et qu'il est partagé par la majorité des résidents du Canada. Les sceptiques de responsabilité diffèrent des autres climato-sceptiques, car ils ont plus de chance d’avoir des revenus plus élevés que la moyenne et de s’associer au Parti Libéral du Canada.

As the fifth-largest per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) emitter and the fourth-largest crude oil producer in the world, Canada will play a major role in the fight against climate change. Considering the politicization of climate change, polarization on this issue, and the fact that public opinion is a major constraint on climate action, this study aims to draw a portrait of climate skepticism in Canada. Using principal component analysis, we identify four types of climate skeptics in Canada: anthropogenic skeptics (doubt the existence of anthropogenic climate change), impact skeptics (doubt that climate change will have negative consequences for themselves or others), response skeptics (doubt the human and social capacity to mitigate the effects of climate change) and responsibility skeptics (doubt that Canada has a share of responsibility in climate change and minimize the role it should play in the fight against it). Using linear regression models and the directed acyclical graphs technique, we developed a sociopolitical profile of different types of climate skeptics in Canada. We also found that the first three forms of skepticism (anthropogenic, impact, and response) are highly correlated and share several sociopolitical characteristics. They are more likely to be male, older, less educated, live in rural areas, and be associated with rightwing values and political parties. In addition, this thesis is the first to reveal the presence of responsibility skepticism in Canada. We find that responsibility skepticism relies on the same arguments as conservative think tanks that aim to obstruct and slow down the implementation of climate policy. Responsibility skepticism stands out because it is the most widespread form of climate skepticism, and is one held by the majority of residents in Canada. Responsibility skeptics differ from other climate skeptics in that they are more likely to have higher than average incomes and to associate themselves with the Liberal Party of Canada.

Country
Canada
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Keywords

Canada, Response skepticism, Scepticisme, Changements climatiques, Scepticisme anthropogénique, Scepticisme de responsabilité, Scepticisme d’impact, Anthropogenic skepticism, Opinion publique, Climate change, Scepticisme de réponse, Impact skepticism, Public opinion, Responsibility skepticism, Skepticism

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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