AbstractSince the late 1960s, a paucity of ice‐jam flooding in the lower Peace River has resulted in prolonged dry periods and considerable reduction in the area covered by lakes and ponds that provide habitat for aquatic life in the Peace–Athabasca Delta (PAD) region. Though major ice jams occur at breakup, antecedent conditions play a significant role in their frequency and severity. These conditions are partly defined by the mode of freezeup and the maximum thickness that is attained during the winter, shortly before the onset of spring and development of positive net heat fluxes to the ice cover. Data from hydrometric gauge records and from field surveys are utilized herein to study these conditions. It is shown that freezeup flows are considerably larger at the present time than before regulation, and may be responsible for more frequent formation of porous accumulation covers. Despite a concomitant rise in winter temperatures, solid‐ice thickness has increased since the 1960s. Using a simple ice growth model, specifically developed for the study area, it is shown that porous accumulation covers enhance winter ice growth via accelerated freezing into the porous accumulation. Coupled with a reduction in winter snowfall, this effect can not only negate, but reverse, the effect of warmer winters on ice thickness, thus explaining present conditions. The present model is also shown to be a useful prediction tool, especially for extrapolating incomplete data to the end of the winter. Copyright © 2007 Crown in the right of Canada. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.