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Global Environmental Change
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
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A blind expert test of contrarian claims about climate data

Authors: Stephan Lewandowsky; Stephan Lewandowsky; Timothy Ballard; Timothy Ballard; Rasmus E. Benestad; Klaus Oberauer;

A blind expert test of contrarian claims about climate data

Abstract

Although virtually all experts agree that CO2 emissions are causing anthropogenic global warming, public discourse is replete with contrarian claims that either deny that global warming is happening or dispute a human influence. Although the rejection of climate science is known to be driven by ideological, psychological, and political factors rather than scientific disagreement, contrarian views have considerable prominence in the media. A better understanding of contrarian discourse is therefore called for. We report a blind expert test of contrarian claims about climatological variables. Expert economists and statisticians were presented with representative contrarian statements (e.g., “Arctic ice is recovering”) translated into an economic or demographic context. In that blind test, contrarian claims were found to be misleading. By contrast, mainstream scientific interpretations of the data were judged to be accurate and policy relevant. The results imply that media inclusion of contrarian statements may increase bias rather than balance.

Countries
Australia, Switzerland, United Kingdom
Keywords

/dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/tedcog, 330, Monitoring, name=Memory, 2306 Global and Planetary Change, 333, Memory, Institute of Psychology, /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/tedcog; name=TeDCog, Climate change, Climate change denial, Planning and Development, Policy and Law, 3305 Geography, /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/psyc_memory; name=Memory, TeDCog, Public discourse about climate change, 2308 Management, name=TeDCog, 150 Psychology, 2303 Ecology, /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/psyc_memory

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    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    27
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
27
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze