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A blind expert test of contrarian claims about climate data

A blind expert test of contrarian claims about climate data
Although virtually all experts agree that CO2 emissions are causing anthropogenic global warming, public discourse is replete with contrarian claims that either deny that global warming is happening or dispute a human influence. Although the rejection of climate science is known to be driven by ideological, psychological, and political factors rather than scientific disagreement, contrarian views have considerable prominence in the media. A better understanding of contrarian discourse is therefore called for. We report a blind expert test of contrarian claims about climatological variables. Expert economists and statisticians were presented with representative contrarian statements (e.g., “Arctic ice is recovering”) translated into an economic or demographic context. In that blind test, contrarian claims were found to be misleading. By contrast, mainstream scientific interpretations of the data were judged to be accurate and policy relevant. The results imply that media inclusion of contrarian statements may increase bias rather than balance.
- University of Bristol United Kingdom
- University of Queensland Australia
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute Norway
- Norwegian Meteorological Institute Norway
- University of Western Australia Australia
/dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/tedcog, 330, Monitoring, name=Memory, 2306 Global and Planetary Change, 333, Memory, Institute of Psychology, /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/tedcog; name=TeDCog, Climate change, Climate change denial, Planning and Development, Policy and Law, 3305 Geography, /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/psyc_memory; name=Memory, TeDCog, Public discourse about climate change, 2308 Management, name=TeDCog, 150 Psychology, 2303 Ecology, /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/psyc_memory
/dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/tedcog, 330, Monitoring, name=Memory, 2306 Global and Planetary Change, 333, Memory, Institute of Psychology, /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/tedcog; name=TeDCog, Climate change, Climate change denial, Planning and Development, Policy and Law, 3305 Geography, /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/psyc_memory; name=Memory, TeDCog, Public discourse about climate change, 2308 Management, name=TeDCog, 150 Psychology, 2303 Ecology, /dk/atira/pure/core/keywords/psyc_memory
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citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).27 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10%
