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Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach

pmid: 32606396
pmc: PMC7327079
Holocene global mean surface temperature, a multi-method reconstruction approach
AbstractAn extensive new multi-proxy database of paleo-temperature time series (Temperature 12k) enables a more robust analysis of global mean surface temperature (GMST) and associated uncertainties than was previously available. We applied five different statistical methods to reconstruct the GMST of the past 12,000 years (Holocene). Each method used different approaches to averaging the globally distributed time series and to characterizing various sources of uncertainty, including proxy temperature, chronology and methodological choices. The results were aggregated to generate a multi-method ensemble of plausible GMST and latitudinal-zone temperature reconstructions with a realistic range of uncertainties. The warmest 200-year-long interval took place around 6500 years ago when GMST was 0.7 °C (0.3, 1.8) warmer than the 19th Century (median, 5th, 95th percentiles). Following the Holocene global thermal maximum, GMST cooled at an average rate −0.08 °C per 1000 years (−0.24, −0.05). The multi-method ensembles and the code used to generate them highlight the utility of the Temperature 12k database, and they are now available for future use by studies aimed at understanding Holocene evolution of the Earth system.
- University of Lausanne Switzerland
- Northern Arizona University, School of Earth Sciences and Environmental Sustainability United States
- Helmholtz Association of German Research Centres Germany
- University of Zurich Switzerland
- Northern Arizona University United States
Statistics and Probability, 910 Geography & travel, Library and Information Sciences, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, 550 Earth sciences & geology, Analysis, Computer Science Applications, Education, Information Systems
Statistics and Probability, 910 Geography & travel, Library and Information Sciences, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, 550 Earth sciences & geology, Analysis, Computer Science Applications, Education, Information Systems
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