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A modified impulse-response representation of the global response to carbon dioxide emissions

Authors: Zebedee Nicholls; Richard J. Millar; Pierre Friedlingstein; Myles R. Allen; Myles R. Allen;

A modified impulse-response representation of the global response to carbon dioxide emissions

Abstract

Abstract. Projections of the response to anthropogenic emission scenarios, evaluation of some greenhouse gas metrics and estimates of the social cost of carbon, often require a simple model that links emissions of carbon dioxide CO2 to atmospheric concentrations and global temperature changes. An essential requirement of such a model is to reproduce the behaviour of more complex models as well as an ability to sample their range of response in a transparent, accessible and reproducible form. Here we adapt the simple model of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5) to explicitly represent the state-dependence of the CO2 airborne fraction and reproduce several idealised experiments performed with more complex models. We find that a simple linear increase in 100-year integrated airborne fraction with cumulative carbon uptake and global temperature change is both necessary and sufficient to represent the response of the climate system to CO2 on a range of timescales and under a range of experimental designs. Quantified ranges of uncertainty (analogous to current assessed ranges in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response) in integrated airborne fraction over the 21st century under a representative mitigation scenario, and an assessed range in how much this quantity may have changed relative to pre-industrial conditions, would be valuable in future scientific assessments.

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    popularity
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    influence
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
hybrid