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Global change is striking harder and faster in the Mediterranean Sea than elsewhere, where high levels of human pressure and proneness to climate change interact in modifying the structure and disrupting regulative mechanisms of marine ecosystems. Rocky reefs are particularly exposed to such environmental changes with ongoing trends of degradation being impressive. Due to the variety of habitat types and associated marine biodiversity, rocky reefs are critical for the functioning of marine ecosystems, and their decline could profoundly affect the provision of essential goods and services which human populations in coastal areas rely upon. Here, we provide an up-to-date overview of the status of rocky reefs, trends in human-driven changes undermining their integrity, and current and upcoming management and conservation strategies, attempting a projection on what could be the future of this essential component of Mediterranean marine ecosystems.

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

Abstract. Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium- and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.

The amount of coastal subsidence on the Sele River coastal plain has been examined and measured with local vertical land movement data. The vertical displacements, derived by satellite radar differential interferometry processing (Ps‐InSAR), show that the analysed coastal sector is characterised by a south‐eastward decrease of vertical subsidence rates. These results have been coupled with sea‐level rise (SLR) scenarios, in order to identify the most critical areas. In general, the subsidence mostly affects areas where alluvial deposits are thicker, the back‐dune areas and the Sele River mouth, all late Holocene in age. Five local SLR scenarios allow identifying zones in the plain potentially prone to inundation and the shoreline retreat for the years 2065 and 2100. For these dates, 2.2% and 7.06% of the investigated area will have a topography lower than the estimated future sea level. Moreover, results show that the extent of the areas potentially exposed to inundation and erosion increases moving from south to north.

Climate change is leading to an increase of mean sea surface temperatures and extreme heat events. There is an urgent need to better understand the capabilities of marine macroalgae to adapt to these rapid changes. In this study, the responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and calcification to elevated temperature in a global warming scenario were investigated in the coralline alga Corallina officinalis. Algae were cultured for 7 weeks under 4 temperature treatments: (1) control under ambient-summer conditions (C, ~20 °C), (2) simulating a one-week heatwave of 1 °C (HW, Tcontrol+1 °C), (3) elevated temperature (+3, Tcontrol +3 °C), (4) combination of the two previous treatments (HW+3, T+3+1 °C). After exposure at T+3 (up to a Tmax of ~23 °C), respiration and photosynthesis increased significantly. After 5 weeks, calcification rates were higher at elevated temperatures (T+3 and THW+3) compared to Tcontrol, but at the end of the experiment (7 weeks) calcification decreased significantly at those temperatures beyond the thermal optimum (six-fold at T+3, and three-fold at THW+3, respectively). The same trend was noted for all the physiological processes, suggesting that a prolonged exposure to high temperatures (7 weeks up to T+3) negatively affect the physiology of C. officinalis, as a possible consequence of thermal stress. A one-week heatwave of +1 °C with respect to Tcontrol (at THW) did not affect respiration, photosynthesis, or calcification rates. Conversely, a heatwave of 1 °C, when combined with the 3 °C increase predicted by the end of the century (at THW+3), induced a reduction of physiological rates. Continued increases in both the intensity and frequency of heatwaves under anthropogenic climate change may lead to reduced growth and survival of primary producers such as C. officinalis.