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Using 40-year experiment data from a mono-modal rainfall area of northern Togo, we analyzed soil fertility dynamics when 2 and 3-year fallows were alternated with 3-year rotation of groundnut, cotton and sorghum. The control treatment consisted to continuous cultivate the soil in a rotation of groundnut/cotton/sorghum without fallow periods. For each rotation, two fertilisation rates were applied: no fertilisation and mineral fertiliser application during the cropping and/or the fallow periods. Yields of unfertilised crops, which averaged 1 t ha-1 during the first years of cultivation, were often nil in the long-term. In the long-term, yields of fertilised cotton and sorghum decreased by 32 and 50 %, respectively compared to the average of 2.4 and 1.6 t ha-1 obtained during the first decade of cultivation. The long-term decline in crop productivity was mitigated when fallow periods were alternated with cropping periods, and consequently there was partial compensation in terms of production for the unproductive fallowed plots. Long-term yields of fertilised cotton and sorghum in the periodically fallowed plots were 40 and 50 % higher than those in continuously cropped plots, respectively; they were 90 and 60 % higher than those in continuously cropped plots without fertilisation. Like for crop productivity, soil C, N and exchangeable Ca and Mg decreased less in periodically fallowed plots than in continuously cropped plots. The limited soil C decline when fallows were alternated with crops appears to be the consequence of no-tillage period rather than the effect of the highest C inputs to the soil.

Storage capacity is a key aspect when validating potential CO2 sequestration sites. Most CO2 storage projects, for obvious reasons, target conventional aquifers (e.g., saline aquifers, depleted hydrocarbon fields) with good reservoir properties and ample subsurface data. However, non-geological factors, such as proximity to the CO2 source, may require storing CO2 in geologically “less-than-ideal” sites. We here present a first-order CO2 storage resource estimate of such an unconventional storage unit, a naturally fractured, compartmentalized and underpressured siliciclastic aquifer located at 670–1,000 m below Longyearbyen, Arctic Norway. Water injection tests confirm the injectivity of the reservoir. Capacity calculations, based on the US DOE guidelines for CO2 storage resource estimation, were implemented in a stochastic volumetric workflow. All available data were used to specify input parameters and their probability distributions. The areal extent of the compartmentalized reservoir is poorly constrained, encouraging a scenario-based approach. Other high-impact parameters influencing storage resource estimates include CO2 saturation, CO2 density and the storage efficiency factor. The hydrodynamic effects of storing CO2 in a compartmentalized aquifer are accounted for by calculating probable storage efficiency factors (0.04–0.79 %) in a fully closed system. The results are ultimately linked to the chosen scenario, with two orders of magnitude difference between scenarios. The fracture network contributes with up to 2 % to the final volumes. The derived workflow validates CO2 storage sites based on initial feasibility assessments, and may be applied to aid decision making at other unconventional CO2 storage sites with significant data uncertainty.

The repercussions of climate change will be felt in various ways throughout both natural and human systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change projections for this region point to a warming trend, particularly in the inland subtropics; frequent occurrence of extreme heat events; increasing aridity; and changes in rainfall—with a particularly pronounced decline in southern Africa and an increase in East Africa. The region could also experience as much as one meter of sea-level rise by the end of this century under a 4 °C warming scenario. Sub-Saharan Africa’s already high rates of undernutrition and infectious disease can be expected to increase compared to a scenario without climate change. Particularly vulnerable to these climatic changes are the rainfed agricultural systems on which the livelihoods of a large proportion of the region’s population currently depend. As agricultural livelihoods become more precarious, the rate of rural–urban migration may be expected to grow, adding to the already significant urbanization trend in the region. The movement of people into informal settlements may expose them to a variety of risks different but no less serious than those faced in their place of origin, including outbreaks of infectious disease, flash flooding and food price increases. Impacts across sectors are likely to amplify the overall effect but remain little understood.

Livestock production in peri-urban areas constitutes an important sub-sector of the agricultural production system in China, and contributes to environmental degradation and local air borne pollution contributing to smog. As a result, local policies are being implemented to safeguard the environment. However, there has been little attempt to quantify the impact of environmental policies on livestock production structure, spatial distribution and their related greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ammonia (NH3) emissions. Here, we calculated the inventories of GHGs and NH3 emissions for 2010 and 2014 for peri-urban livestock production in Beijing, using reliable spatially explicit data, which was collected from 1748 industrial farms in 2010 and 2351 industrial farms in 2014, including pig, dairy, beef cattle, poultry and sheep farms. Our estimates indicated that total industrial livestock production increased by 17% between 2010 and 2014, even under the more strict environmental protection polices, with farm size decreasing by between 7% and 47%. Up to 50% of the industrial livestock farms have remained in operation, with the rest closing down or being moved to other regions. Following this trend, total GHGs emission decreased from 5.0 to 4.5 Tg CO2-eq between 2010 and 2014. Most of the GHGs emission reduction was due to the lowering of energy related carbon dioxide (CO2) emission in 2014. Total NH3 emission decreased from 102 to 96 Gg between 2010 and 2014, mainly due to more stringent environmental regulations for new and extended farms (increased in farm size), e.g. Discharge standard for pollutants for livestock and poultry breeding. Our study identified that GHGs and NH3 emission hotspots were concentrated in suburban areas (around the city centre and with less agricultural resource and population density) in 2010. However, between 2010 and 2014 these hotspots moved to the exurban plain and mountain area following the closure or sub-division of intensive farms in suburban regions and construction of new and small farms in exurban areas (around the suburban and with more agricultural resource and lower population density). Scenario analysis suggests that total GHGs emission can be reduced by up to 1.0 Tg CO2-eq (23% of total livestock sector emissions) in Beijing, using a combination of modifications of farm type, livestock diet and manure management. The integrated scenario can reduce CH4, N2O and NH3 emissions by 27%, 9% and 35%, compared to the reference scenario. Within this short period of time (5 years), policies have had direct impacts on peri-urban livestock production in Beijing, resulting in marked changes in the structure of different livestock sectors, as well as the GHGs and NH3 emission inventories and their spatial distribution. Our analysis clearly shows that the success of these (and future) polices relies on optimizing spatial management of new livestock production systems. Policy and farmer guidance should focus on optimizing livestock diet and on-farm manure management, industrial production systems and the pig and poultry sectors in peri-urban regions.

With concerns of energy shortages, China, like the United States, European Union, and other countries, is promoting the development of biofuels. However, China also faces high future demand for food and feed, and so its bioenergy program must try to strike a balance between food and fuel. The goals of this paper are to provide an overview of China's current bioethanol program, identify the potential for using marginal lands for feedstock production, and measure the likely impacts of China's bioethanol development on the nation's future food self-sufficiency. Our results indicate that the potential to use marginal land for bioethanol feedstock production is limited. Applying a modeling approach based on highly disaggregated data by region, our analysis shows that the target of 10 million t of bioethanol by 2020 seems to be a prudent target, causing no major disturbances in China's food security. But the expansion of bioethanol may increase environmental pressures due to the higher levels of fertilizer use. This study shows also that if China were able to cultivate 45% of its required bioethanol feedstock on new marginal land, it would further limit negative effects of the bioethanol program on the domestic and international economy, but at the expense of having to apply another 750 thousand t of fertilizer.

Background: The gut microbiota is a putative target for dietary interventions for cardio-metabolic health (CMH), including prevention of obesity, type 2 diabetes, and cardiovascular disease. This has generated considerable interest, but the actual feasibility for diet or specific foods to induce measurable, sustained and meaningful benefits for CMH risk by this route remains uncertain. Scope and approach: This report summarises an expert workshop assessing the gut microbiota as a relevant, feasible and competitive target for CMH benefits by dietary interventions. It summarises the expert presentations and overall view of participants on the current status and outlook, considering also implications for the food industry. Key findings and conclusions: Changing the gut microbiota by diet is possible, but an assessment of the impact on CMH risk is still needed, including clarifying advantages above other known dietary routes. The individual gut microbiota composition may in part determine the impact of diet and its effects on health. Therefore, future developments may identify individuals at risk and thus possible modification of the microbiota to achieve benefits in susceptible (sub) populations depending on their initial microbiota composition. Prebiotics currently appear to be the most promising ingredients; however, required doses may be relatively high and the actual role of gut microbiota needs further assessment. Overall, causal evidence linking gut microbiota interventions with CMH benefits are developing in preclinical models but are still lacking in humans. A significant research effort is needed and ongoing to determine whether potential effects can be reliably substantiated.

South Africa is likely to experience higher temperatures and less rainfall as a result of climate change. Resulting changes in regional water endowments and soil moisture will affect the productivity of cropland, leading to changes in food production and international trade patterns. High population growth elsewhere in Africa and Asia will put further pressure on natural resources and food security in South Africa. Based on four climate change scenarios from two general circulation models (CSIRO and MIROC) and two IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A1B, B1), this study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on global agriculture and explores two alternative adaptation scenarios for South Africa. The analysis uses an updated GTAP-W model, which distinguishes between rainfed and irrigated agriculture and implements water as an explicit factor of production for irrigated agriculture. For South Africa to adapt to the adverse consequences of global climate change, it would require yield improvements of more than 20 percent over baseline investments in agricultural research and development. A doubling of irrigation development, on the other hand, will not be sufficient to reverse adverse impacts from climate change in the country.

Innovation is receiving increased attention among policymakers as a means of addressing sustainable economic development challenges. However, a range of factors such as inappropriate physical and knowledge infrastructures, incoherence of institutional frameworks, or lack of specific capabilities may have a negative impact on the functioning of the agricultural innovation system. The purpose of this paper is to apply a comprehensive innovation systems analytical framework, reconciling analyses of systemic structures, functions, failures and merits of innovation systems to assess and compare the performance of the agricultural innovation systems of Scotland and the Netherlands. To achieve this an analytical framework was drawn up based on the available literature, and through a process that included document analysis and a series of semi-structured interviews and workshops with experts in the two countries the agrifood sectors were empirically assessed. In both countries, systemic failures in terms of actors’ interactions and competencies as well as market and incentive structures were revealed. However, differences emerge between the two countries that appear to relate more to social and cultural (soft institutions) differences rather than the formal legal and regulatory frameworks (hard institutions)