• Energy Research
• IT close
• AU close
• CA close
• Imperial College London close

AbstractGlobal greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesise the literature to explain recent trends in global and regional emissions in each of these sectors. To contextualise our review, we present estimates of GHG emissions trends by sector from 1990 to 2018, describing the major sources of emissions growth, stability and decline across ten global regions. Overall, the literature and data emphasise that progress towards reducing GHG emissions has been limited. The prominent global pattern is a continuation of underlying drivers with few signs of emerging limits to demand, nor of a deep shift towards the delivery of low and zero carbon services across sectors. We observe a moderate decarbonisation of energy systems in Europe and North America, driven by fuel switching and the increasing penetration of renewables. By contrast, in rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based energy systems have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down in their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, energy services and travel have driven emissions growth in the industry, buildings and transport sectors, particularly in Eastern Asia, Southern Asia and South-East Asia. An expansion of agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas has driven recent increases in AFOLU emissions in Latin America, South-East Asia and Africa. Identifying, understanding, and tackling the most persistent and climate-damaging trends across sectors is a fundamental concern for research and policy as humanity treads deeper into the Anthropocene.

Non-technical summaryWe summarize some of the past year's most important findings within climate change-related research. New research has improved our understanding about the remaining options to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, through overcoming political barriers to carbon pricing, taking into account non-CO2factors, a well-designed implementation of demand-side and nature-based solutions, resilience building of ecosystems and the recognition that climate change mitigation costs can be justified by benefits to the health of humans and nature alone. We consider new insights about what to expect if we fail to include a new dimension of fire extremes and the prospect of cascading climate tipping elements.Technical summaryA synthesis is made of 10 topics within climate research, where there have been significant advances since January 2020. The insights are based on input from an international open call with broad disciplinary scope. Findings include: (1) the options to still keep global warming below 1.5 °C; (2) the impact of non-CO2factors in global warming; (3) a new dimension of fire extremes forced by climate change; (4) the increasing pressure on interconnected climate tipping elements; (5) the dimensions of climate justice; (6) political challenges impeding the effectiveness of carbon pricing; (7) demand-side solutions as vehicles of climate mitigation; (8) the potentials and caveats of nature-based solutions; (9) how building resilience of marine ecosystems is possible; and (10) that the costs of climate change mitigation policies can be more than justified by the benefits to the health of humans and nature.Social media summaryHow do we limit global warming to 1.5 °C and why is it crucial? See highlights of latest climate science.

The present review article addresses the vibration behavior of bladed disks encountered e.g. in aircraft engines as well as industrial gas and steam turbines. The utilization of the dissipative effects of dry friction in mechanical joints is a common means of the passive mitigation of structural vibrations caused by aeroelastic excitation mechanisms. The prediction of the vibration behavior is a scientific challenge due to (a) the strongly nonlinear contact interactions involving local sticking, sliding and liftoff, (b) the model order required to accurately describe the dynamic behavior of the assembly, and (c) the multi-disciplinary character of the problem associated with the need to account for structural mechanical as well as fluid dynamical effects. The purpose of this article is the overview and discussion the current state of the art of vibration prediction approaches. The modeling approaches in this work embrace the description of the rotating bladed disk, the contact modeling, the consideration of aeroelastic effects, appropriate model order reduction techniques and the exploitation of the rotationally periodic nature of the problem. The simulation approaches cover the direct computation of periodic, steady-state externally forced and self-excited vibrations using the high-order harmonic balance method, the formulation of the contact problem in the frequency domain, methods for the solution of the governing algebraic equations and advanced simulation approaches, including the concept of nonlinear modes.

Herbivores influence nutrient cycling and primary production in terrestrial plant communities. However, both empirical and theoretical studies have indicated that the mechanisms by which herbivores influence nutrient availability, and thus their net effects on primary production, might differ between time scales. For a grassland in southeast England, we show that the effects of rabbits on primary production change over time in a set of grazed plots paired with exclosures ranging from 0 to 14 years in age. Herbivore exclusion decreased net aboveground primary production (APP) in the short term, but increased APP in the long term. APP was closely correlated with N mineralization rates in both grazed and ungrazed treatments, and accumulation of litter within the grazing exclosures led to higher N mineralization rates in exclosures in the long run. Rabbit grazing did not influence litter quality. The low contrast in palatability between species and the presence of grazing-tolerant plants might prevent rabbits from favoring unpalatable plant species that decompose slowly, in contrast to results from other ecosystems. Our results indicate that it is essential to understand the effects on N cycling in order to predict the effect of rabbit grazing on APP. Rabbits might decrease N mineralization and APP in the long term by increasing losses of N from grasslands.