• Energy Research
• biological sciences close
• US close
• AU close

AbstractElevated carbon-dioxide concentration [eCO2] is a key climate change factor affecting plant growth and yield. Conventionally, crop modeling work has evaluated the effect of climatic parameters on crop growth, without considering CO2. It is conjectured that a novel multimodal ensemble approach may improve the accuracy of modelled responses to eCO2. To demonstrate the applicability of a multimodel ensemble of crop models to simulation of eCO2, APSIM, CropSyst, DSSAT, EPIC and STICS were calibrated to observed data for crop phenology, biomass and yield. Significant variability in simulated biomass production was shown among the models particularly at dryland sites (44%) compared to the irrigated site (22%). Increased yield was observed for all models with the highest average yield at dryland site by EPIC (49%) and lowest under irrigated conditions (17%) by APSIM and CropSyst. For the ensemble, maximum yield was 45% for the dryland site and a minimum 22% at the irrigated site. We concluded from our study that process-based crop models have variability in the simulation of crop response to [eCO2] with greater difference under water-stressed conditions. We recommend the use of ensembles to improve accuracy in modeled responses to [eCO2].

Historical exploitation of the Mediterranean Sea and the absence of rigorous baselines makes it difficult to evaluate the current health of the marine ecosystems and the efficacy of conservation actions at the ecosystem level. Here we establish the first current baseline and gradient of ecosystem structure of nearshore rocky reefs at the Mediterranean scale. We conducted underwater surveys in 14 marine protected areas and 18 open access sites across the Mediterranean, and across a 31-fold range of fish biomass (from 3.8 to 118 g m(-2)). Our data showed remarkable variation in the structure of rocky reef ecosystems. Multivariate analysis showed three alternative community states: (1) large fish biomass and reefs dominated by non-canopy algae, (2) lower fish biomass but abundant native algal canopies and suspension feeders, and (3) low fish biomass and extensive barrens, with areas covered by turf algae. Our results suggest that the healthiest shallow rocky reef ecosystems in the Mediterranean have both large fish and algal biomass. Protection level and primary production were the only variables significantly correlated to community biomass structure. Fish biomass was significantly larger in well-enforced no-take marine reserves, but there were no significant differences between multi-use marine protected areas (which allow some fishing) and open access areas at the regional scale. The gradients reported here represent a trajectory of degradation that can be used to assess the health of any similar habitat in the Mediterranean, and to evaluate the efficacy of marine protected areas.

Alpine, subalpine and boreal tree species, of low genetic diversity and adapted to low optimal temperatures, are vulnerable to the warming effects of global climate change. The accurate prediction of these species’ distributions in response to climate change is critical for effective planning and management. The goal of this research is to predict climate change effects on the distribution of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) in the Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP), eastern USA. Climate change is, however, conflated with other environmental factors, making its assessment a complex systems problem in which indirect effects are significant in causality. Predictions were made by linking a tree growth simulation model, red spruce growth model (ARIM.SIM), to a GIS spatial model, red spruce habitat model (ARIM.HAB). ARIM.SIM quantifies direct and indirect interactions between red spruce and its growth factors, revealing the latter to be dominant. ARIM.HAB spatially distributes the ARIM.SIM simulations under the assumption that greater growth reflects higher probabilities of presence. ARIM.HAB predicts the future habitat suitability of red spruce based on growth predictions of ARIM.SIM under climate change and three air pollution scenarios: 10% increase, no change and 10% decrease. Results show that suitable habitats shrink most when air pollution increases. Higher temperatures cause losses of most low-elevation habitats. Increased precipitation and air pollution produce acid rain, which causes loss of both low- and high-elevation habitats. The general prediction is that climate change will cause contraction of red spruce habitats at both lower and higher elevations in GSMNP, and the effects will be exacerbated by increased air pollution. These predictions provide valuable information for understanding potential impacts of global climate change on the spatiotemporal distribution of red spruce habitats in GSMNP.

Numerous studies have examined relationships between primary production and biodiversity at higher trophic levels. However, altered production in plant communities is often tightly linked with concomitant shifts in diversity and composition, and most studies have not disentangled the direct effects of production on consumers. Furthermore, when studies do examine the effects of plant production on animals in terrestrial systems, they are primarily confined to a subset of taxonomic or functional groups instead of investigating the responses of the entire community. Using natural monocultures of the salt marsh cordgrass Spartina alterniflora, we were able to examine the impacts of increased plant production, independent of changes in plant composition and/or diversity, on the trophic structure, composition, and diversity of the entire arthropod community. If arthropod species richness increased with greater plant production, we predicted that it would be driven by: (1) an increase in the number of rare species, and/or (2) an increase in arthropod abundance. Our results largely supported our predictions: species richness of herbivores, detritivores, predators, and parasitoids increased monotonically with increasing levels of plant production, and the diversity of rare species also increased with plant production. However, rare species that accounted for this difference were predators, parasitoids, and detritivores, not herbivores. Herbivore species richness could be simply explained by the relationship between abundance and diversity. Using nonmetric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) and analysis of similarity (ANOSIM), we also found significant changes in arthropod species composition with increasing levels of production. Our findings have important implications in the intertidal salt marsh, where human activities have increased nitrogen runoff into the marsh, and demonstrate that such nitrogen inputs cascade to affect community structure, diversity, and abundance in higher trophic levels.

Impacts of climate change on natural and human systems will become increasingly severe as the magnitude of climate change increases. Climate change adaptation interventions to address current and projected impacts are thus paramount. Yet, evidence on their effectiveness remains limited, highlighting the need for appropriate ecological indicators to measure progress of climate change adaptation for the natural environment. We outline conceptual, analytical, and practical challenges in developing such indicators, before proposing a framework with three process-based and two results-based indicator types to track progress in adapting to climate change. We emphasize the importance of dynamic assessment and modification over time, as new adaptation targets are set and/or as intervention actions are monitored and evaluated. Our framework and proposed indicators are flexible and widely applicable across species, habitats, and monitoring programmes, and could be accommodated within existing national or international frameworks to enable the evaluation of both large-scale policy instruments and local management interventions. We conclude by suggesting further work required to develop these indicators fully, and hope this will stimulate the use of ecological indicators to evaluate the effectiveness of policy interventions for the adaptation of the natural environment across the globe.

Moss-associated N2 fixation by epiphytic microbes is a key biogeochemical process in nutrient-limited high-latitude ecosystems. Abiotic drivers, such as temperature and moisture, and the identity of host mosses are critical sources of variation in N2 fixation rates. An understanding of the potential interaction between these factors is essential for predicting N inputs as moss communities change with the climate. To further understand the drivers and results of N2 fixation rate variation, we obtained natural abundance values of C and N isotopes and an associated rate of N2 fixation with 15N2 gas incubations in 34 moss species collected in three regions across Alaska, USA. We hypothesized that δ15N values would increase toward 0‰ with higher N2 fixation to reflect the increasing contribution of fixed N2 in moss biomass. Second, we hypothesized that δ13C and N2 fixation would be positively related, as enriched δ13C signatures reflect abiotic conditions favorable to N2 fixation. We expected that the magnitude of these relationships would vary among types of host mosses, reflecting differences in anatomy and habitat. We found little support for our first hypothesis, with only a modest positive relationship between N2 fixation rates and δ15N in a structural equation model. We found a significant positive relationship between δ13C and N2 fixation only in Hypnales, where the probability of N2 fixation activity reached 95% when δ13C values exceeded - 30.4‰. We conclude that moisture and temperature interact strongly with host moss identity in determining the extent to which abiotic conditions impact associated N2 fixation rates.