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Abstract. Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases, together with trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions with consistently derived state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources for the European Union and UK (EU27+UK). We integrate recent emission inventory data, ecosystem process-based model results, and inverse modelling estimates over the period 1990–2018. BU and TD products are compared with European National GHG Inventories (NGHGI) reported to the UN climate convention secretariat UNFCCC in 2019. For uncertainties, we used for NGHGI the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the Member States following the IPCC guidelines recommendations. For atmospheric inversion models (TD) or other inventory datasets (BU), we defined uncertainties from the spread between different model estimates or model specific uncertainties when reported. In comparing NGHGI with other approaches, a key source of bias is the activities included, e.g. anthropogenic versus anthropogenic plus natural fluxes. In inversions, the separation between anthropogenic and natural emissions is sensitive to the geospatial prior distribution of emissions. Over the 2011–2015 period, which is the common denominator of data availability between all sources, the anthropogenic BU approaches are directly comparable, reporting mean emissions of 20.8 Tg CH4 yr−1 (EDGAR v5.0) and 19.0 Tg CH4 yr−1 (GAINS), consistent with the NGHGI estimates of 18.9 ± 1.7 Tg CH4 yr−1. TD total inversions estimates give higher emission estimates, as they also include natural emissions. Over the same period regional TD inversions with higher resolution atmospheric transport models give a mean emission of 28.8 Tg CH4 yr−1. Coarser resolution global TD inversions are consistent with regional TD inversions, for global inversions with GOSAT satellite data (23.3 Tg CH4yr−1) and surface network (24.4 Tg CH4 yr−1). The magnitude of natural peatland emissions from the JSBACH-HIMMELI model, natural rivers and lakes emissions and geological sources together account for the gap between NGHGI and inversions and account for 5.2 Tg CH4 yr−1. For N2O emissions, over the 2011–2015 period, both BU approaches (EDGAR v5.0 and GAINS) give a mean value of anthropogenic emissions of 0.8 and 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, agreeing with the NGHGI data (0.9 ± 0.6 Tg N2O yr−1). Over the same period, the average of the three total TD global and regional inversions was 1.3 ± 0.4 and 1.3 ± 0.1 Tg N2O yr−1 respectively, compared to 0.9 Tg N2O yr−1 from the BU data. The TU and BU comparison method defined in this study can be operationalized for future yearly updates for the calculation of CH4 and N2O budgets both at EU+UK scale and at national scale. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4288969 (Petrescu et al., 2020).

Improving access to sustainable energy services and reducing the carbon footprint and deforestation of developing countries presents a substantial challenge to the development industry. This paper aims to critically assess two prevalent business models emerging to meet this challenge: financial institution–technology provider partnerships and the one-stop-shop, pay-as-you-go (PAYG) model. The authors find that collaborations between financial institutions and energy providers need to address grey areas such as product quality standards, marketing, and post-sales services, and incorporate feedback loops to continually evaluate the performance of the partnership. Pay-as-you-go presents an intriguing business case to leapfrog more traditional energy access programmes. However, more robust results from the field need to be reported before the PAYG movement can claim success. Ultimately, collaborative and integrated actions by all stakeholders are needed to achieve universal energy access.

Abstract In this study, we develop indices for the overall technical efficiency (OTE) and energy-saving target ratio (ESTR) using data envelopment analysis (DEA) to calculate the relative efficiency and energy-saving potential of 30 provinces in China from 1997 to 2014. The results are as follows: (1) the OTE of China is 79.187%, indicating that there is 20.813% potential for improvement. The OTE exhibits decreasing efficiency values from the coastal areas to the inland areas and has clear geographical relationships. The average values of OTE in the east, midland and west are 0.932, 0.694 and 0.703. Theoretically, the total energy savings of CE, HE, ME and BE are 11080.60PJ, 5124.71PJ, 4729.24PJ and 6797.39PJ. (2) Regarding CE, HE, ME and BE, the provinces with the highest comprehensive ranks are Henan, Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Gansu, which simultaneously have the greatest energy-saving potentials and energy-saving targets. (3) The HE has the largest average ESTR of 38.357% and the values for BE, CE, and ME are 25.759%, 23.874%, and 22.143%, respectively. The CE category is the greatest in total energy savings (40.171%), which is followed by BE (24.150%), HE (18.384%), and ME (17.293%).

Abstract Transportation de-carbonization is a complex problem involving the economy, population, technology and environment. Implementing the pathway simulation based on systematic methods will help to optimize the transportation sustainability plan. This study’s key motivation is that earlier research ignored the relationship between driving factors and the transmission process. To quantitatively identify the path and process of emission reduction, a hybrid system dynamics STIRPAT-SD model is proposed to explore the transportation optimization’s de-carbonization ability. This study fully considers the composition of elements and subsystems based on the STIRPAT theoretical model and visually shows the system’s feedback relationship. Transportation structural and technical optimization scenarios are set to identify the threshold reduction paths. It is found these optimization strategies have significant de-carbonization effects. And transportation structure policy has the highest de-carbonization efficiency, the emission intensity decreased by 9.1% under the TSS2 scenario (Transportation structure scenario). This study proposes a novelty model combining dynamic simulating processes with a significantly theoretical model to improve simulation and factor composition accuracy. And the joint scenario setting identifies the most effective de-carbonization pathway and clarifies the threshold of all possible pathways. Research findings can effectively track, test, predict the achievement of policy goals, and provide policy optimization references for the sustainable development related to the transportation system in practice.

As a relatively mature technology, biomass molded fuel (BMF) is widely used in distributed and centralized heating in China and has received considerable government attention. Although many BFM incentive policies have been developed, decreased domestic traditional fuel prices in China have caused BMF to lose its economic viability and new policy recommendations are needed to stimulate this industry. The present study built a regionalized net present value (NPV) model based on real production process simulation to test the impacts of each policy factor. The calculations showed that BMF production costs vary remarkably between regions, with the cost of agricultural briquette fuel (ABF) ranging from 86 US dollar per metric ton (USD/t) to 110 (USD/t), while that of woody pellet fuel (WPF) varies from 122 USD/t to 154 USD/t. The largest part of BMF’s cost composition is feedstock, which accounts for up 50%–60% of the total; accordingly a feedstock subsidy is the most effective policy factor, but in consideration of policy implementation, it would be better to use a production subsidy. For ABF, the optimal product subsidy varies from 26 USD/t to 57 USD/t among different regions of China, while for WPF, the range is 36 USD/t to 75 USD/t. Based on the data, a regional BMF development strategy is also proposed in this study.

China’s research on and specific implementation of energy saving for buildings are mainly concentrated in urban areas, but according to 2016 statistics, the rural population accounts for 42.65% of the total population, so rural housing has considerable energy-saving potential. However, the degree of attention to the energy consumption of rural houses needs to be improved. Regarding the research on and implementation of passive energy-saving strategies for residences, compared with centralized urban high-rise residences, rural residences mainly have independent courtyards, with a flexible layout and easier transformation. In this study, a system that uses the common cold lanes in traditional villages and buildings’ exterior walls was constructed, and the indoor spaces of courtyard buildings in southern Shaanxi were completely passively cooled in summer. This system can be completely separated from the supply of artificial energy by relying on the accumulation and buoyancy effects of air in patios and cold lanes and the hot-pressure ventilation in buildings to cool the buildings and greatly improve indoor ventilation efficiency. As the building is ventilated and cooled, the air wall formed in the system can effectively prevent direct contact between the outdoor and indoor temperatures and reduce the impact of thermal wall radiation on the interior. In previous studies on the passive design of courtyard houses, scholars considered the effect of thermal wall radiation on indoor temperature in simulations. Therefore, in this study, we also separately calculated whether to consider the difference between the situation with and without wall heat radiation (WHR) when simulating thermal conversion. The final results show that when the cooling system was adopted, the annual cooling load of the whole building was 4786.494 kW·h without WHR. However, with WHR, the cooling load reduction was 2989.128 kW·h, a difference of 1797.336 kW·h.

This study aims to explore the application of fractional order chaotic system (FOCS), based on the T-S fuzzy model, in the design of secure communication (SC) and this SC system’s role in the construction of efficiency evaluation system for dispatching operation of energy saving and power generation under a low carbon economy (LCE). First, the definition of fractional order differential equations and the stability theory of FOCS are discussed. T-S fuzzy control is introduced to analyse the stability of FOCS. Then, based on the adaptive synchronisation theory, the combined FOCS is designed for SC, and the performance of the system constructed here is analysed in a MATLAB environment. Next, an evaluation index system of the dispatching operation effect of energy saving and power generation under LCE is constructed. The confidential communication system constructed here is used to transmit the index data. The particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm is then used to optimise the back propagation neural network (BPNN) model. The BPNN algorithm based on PSO (PSO-BPNN) is obtained, and the evaluation model is constructed. After training this model, it is applied to the evaluation of the dispatching operation effect for energy saving and power generation in 10 provinces in China. The simulation results show that the FOCS based on the T-S fuzzy model can acquire the criterion of system stability. Furthermore, the constructed SC system can effectively undertake the secure transmission of square and sine waves. The performance of the PSO-BPNN model seems to be better than other algorithms. After analysing the data on energy saving and power generation from 10 provinces in China using this model, the comprehensive evaluation value of province 5 is found to be the highest and good (0.802), while that of province 4 is the lowest and general (0.600). Summarising, the FOCS based on T-S fuzzy model constructed here is applied to the design of SC. This can improve the confidentiality of data transmission and reduce the transmission error. Moreover, the BPNN evaluation model based on PSO can effectively achieve the evaluation of the dispatching operation effect of energy saving and power generation under LCE.

Abstract. Regional land carbon budgets provide insights on the spatial distribution of the land uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and can be used to evaluate carbon cycle models and to define baselines for land-based additional mitigation efforts. The scientific community has been involved in providing observation-based estimates of regional carbon budgets either by downscaling atmospheric CO2 observations into surface fluxes with atmospheric inversions, by using inventories of carbon stock changes in terrestrial ecosystems, by upscaling local field observations such as flux towers with gridded climate and remote sensing fields or by integrating data-driven or process-oriented terrestrial carbon cycle models. The first coordinated attempt to collect regional carbon budgets for nine regions covering the entire globe in the RECCAP-1 project has delivered estimates for the decade 2000–2009, but these budgets were not comparable between regions, due to different definitions and component fluxes reported or omitted. The recent recognition of lateral fluxes of carbon by human activities and rivers, that connect CO2 uptake in one area with its release in another also requires better definition and protocols to reach harmonized regional budgets that can be summed up to the globe and compared with the atmospheric CO2 growth rate and inversion results. In this study, for the international initiative RECCAP-2 coordinated by the Global Carbon Project, which aims as an update of regional carbon budgets over the last two decades based on observations, for 10 regions covering the globe, with a better harmonization that the precursor project, we provide recommendations for using atmospheric inversions results to match bottom-up carbon accounting and models, and we define the different component fluxes of the net land atmosphere carbon exchange that should be reported by each research group in charge of each region. Special attention is given to lateral fluxes, inland water fluxes and land use fluxes.