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AbstractPathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early-stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.

AbstractResearch in global change ecology relies heavily on global climatic grids derived from estimates of air temperature in open areas at around 2 m above the ground. These climatic grids do not reflect conditions below vegetation canopies and near the ground surface, where critical ecosystem functions occur and most terrestrial species reside. Here, we provide global maps of soil temperature and bioclimatic variables at a 1‐km2resolution for 0–5 and 5–15 cm soil depth. These maps were created by calculating the difference (i.e. offset) between in situ soil temperature measurements, based on time series from over 1200 1‐km2pixels (summarized from 8519 unique temperature sensors) across all the world's major terrestrial biomes, and coarse‐grained air temperature estimates from ERA5‐Land (an atmospheric reanalysis by the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts). We show that mean annual soil temperature differs markedly from the corresponding gridded air temperature, by up to 10°C (mean = 3.0 ± 2.1°C), with substantial variation across biomes and seasons. Over the year, soils in cold and/or dry biomes are substantially warmer (+3.6 ± 2.3°C) than gridded air temperature, whereas soils in warm and humid environments are on average slightly cooler (−0.7 ± 2.3°C). The observed substantial and biome‐specific offsets emphasize that the projected impacts of climate and climate change on near‐surface biodiversity and ecosystem functioning are inaccurately assessed when air rather than soil temperature is used, especially in cold environments. The global soil‐related bioclimatic variables provided here are an important step forward for any application in ecology and related disciplines. Nevertheless, we highlight the need to fill remaining geographic gaps by collecting more in situ measurements of microclimate conditions to further enhance the spatiotemporal resolution of global soil temperature products for ecological applications.

Summary To what degree plant ecosystems thermoregulate their canopy temperature (Tc) is critical to assess ecosystems' metabolisms and resilience with climate change, but remains controversial, with opinions from no to moderate thermoregulation capability. With global datasets of Tc, air temperature (Ta), and other environmental and biotic variables from FLUXNET and satellites, we tested the ‘limited homeothermy’ hypothesis (indicated by Tc & Ta regression slope < 1 or Tc < Ta around midday) across global extratropics, including temporal and spatial dimensions. Across daily to weekly and monthly timescales, over 80% of sites/ecosystems have slopes ≥1 or Tc > Ta around midday, rejecting the above hypothesis. For those sites unsupporting the hypothesis, their Tc–Ta difference (ΔT) exhibits considerable seasonality that shows negative, partial correlations with leaf area index, implying a certain degree of thermoregulation capability. Spatially, site‐mean ΔT exhibits larger variations than the slope indicator, suggesting ΔT is a more sensitive indicator for detecting thermoregulatory differences across biomes. Furthermore, this large spatial‐wide ΔT variation (0–6°C) is primarily explained by environmental variables (38%) and secondarily by biotic factors (15%). These results demonstrate diverse thermoregulation patterns across global extratropics, with most ecosystems negating the ‘limited homeothermy’ hypothesis, but their thermoregulation still occurs, implying that slope < 1 or Tc < Ta are not necessary conditions for plant thermoregulation.

AbstractThe functional composition of plant communities is commonly thought to be determined by contemporary climate. However, if rates of climate‐driven immigration and/or exclusion of species are slow, then contemporary functional composition may be explained by paleoclimate as well as by contemporary climate. We tested this idea by coupling contemporary maps of plant functional trait composition across North and South America to paleoclimate means and temporal variation in temperature and precipitation from the Last Interglacial (120 ka) to the present. Paleoclimate predictors strongly improved prediction of contemporary functional composition compared to contemporary climate predictors, with a stronger influence of temperature in North America (especially during periods of ice melting) and of precipitation in South America (across all times). Thus, climate from tens of thousands of years ago influences contemporary functional composition via slow assemblage dynamics.