• Energy Research
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Climate warming and human impacts are thought to be causing peatlands to dry,\ud potentially converting them from sinks to sources of carbon. However, it is unclear\ud whether the hydrological status of peatlands has moved beyond their natural envelope.\ud Here we show that European peatlands have undergone substantial, widespread drying\ud during the last ~300 years. We analyse testate amoeba-derived hydrological\ud reconstructions from 31 peatlands across Britain, Ireland, Scandinavia and continental\ud Europe to examine changes in peatland surface wetness during the last 2000 years.\ud 60% of our study sites were drier during the period CE 1800-2000 than they have been\ud for the last 600 years; 40% of sites were drier than they have been for 1000 years; and\ud 24% of sites were drier than they have been for 2000 years. This marked recent\ud transition in the hydrology of European peatlands is concurrent with compound\ud pressures including climatic drying, warming and direct human impacts on peatlands,\ud although these factors vary between regions and individual sites. Our results suggest\ud that the wetness of many European peatlands may now be moving away from natural\ud baselines. Our findings highlight the need for effective management and restoration of\ud European peatlands.

Abstract Global climate change is driving species' distributions towards the poles and mountain tops during both non‐breeding and breeding seasons, leading to changes in the composition of natural communities. However, the degree of season differences in climate‐driven community shifts has not been thoroughly investigated at large spatial scales. We compared the rates of change in the community composition during both winter (non‐breeding season) and summer (breeding) and their relation to temperature changes. Based on continental‐scale data from Europe and North America, we examined changes in bird community composition using the community temperature index (CTI) approach and compared the changes with observed regional temperature changes during 1980–2016. CTI increased faster in winter than in summer. This seasonal discrepancy is probably because individuals are less site‐faithful in winter, and can more readily shift their wintering sites in response to weather in comparison to the breeding season. Regional long‐term changes in community composition were positively associated with regional temperature changes during both seasons, but the pattern was only significant during summer due to high annual variability in winter communities. Annual changes in community composition were positively associated with the annual temperature changes during both seasons. Our results were broadly consistent across continents, suggesting some climate‐driven restructuring in both European and North American avian communities. Because community composition has changed much faster during the winter than during the breeding season, it is important to increase our knowledge about climate‐driven impacts during the less‐studied non‐breeding season.

AbstractPermafrost peatlands are biogeochemical hot spots in the Arctic as they store vast amounts of carbon. Permafrost thaw could release part of these long‐term immobile carbon stocks as the greenhouse gases (GHGs) carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) to the atmosphere, but how much, at which time‐span and as which gaseous carbon species is still highly uncertain. Here we assess the effect of permafrost thaw on GHG dynamics under different moisture and vegetation scenarios in a permafrost peatland. A novel experimental approach using intact plant–soil systems (mesocosms) allowed us to simulate permafrost thaw under near‐natural conditions. We monitored GHG flux dynamics via high‐resolution flow‐through gas measurements, combined with detailed monitoring of soil GHG concentration dynamics, yielding insights into GHG production and consumption potential of individual soil layers. Thawing the upper 10–15 cm of permafrost under dry conditions increased CO2 emissions to the atmosphere (without vegetation: 0.74 ± 0.49 vs. 0.84 ± 0.60 g CO2–C m−2 day−1; with vegetation: 1.20 ± 0.50 vs. 1.32 ± 0.60 g CO2–C m−2 day−1, mean ± SD, pre‐ and post‐thaw, respectively). Radiocarbon dating (14C) of respired CO2, supported by an independent curve‐fitting approach, showed a clear contribution (9%–27%) of old carbon to this enhanced post‐thaw CO2 flux. Elevated concentrations of CO2, CH4, and dissolved organic carbon at depth indicated not just pulse emissions during the thawing process, but sustained decomposition and GHG production from thawed permafrost. Oxidation of CH4 in the peat column, however, prevented CH4 release to the atmosphere. Importantly, we show here that, under dry conditions, peatlands strengthen the permafrost–carbon feedback by adding to the atmospheric CO2 burden post‐thaw. However, as long as the water table remains low, our results reveal a strong CH4 sink capacity in these types of Arctic ecosystems pre‐ and post‐thaw, with the potential to compensate part of the permafrost CO2 losses over longer timescales.

AbstractEfforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre‐industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.5 and 2.0°C warming above the pre‐industrial period) on global wheat production and local yield variability. A multi‐crop and multi‐climate model ensemble over a global network of sites developed by the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) for Wheat was used to represent major rainfed and irrigated wheat cropping systems. Results show that projected global wheat production will change by −2.3% to 7.0% under the 1.5°C scenario and −2.4% to 10.5% under the 2.0°C scenario, compared to a baseline of 1980–2010, when considering changes in local temperature, rainfall, and global atmospheric CO2 concentration, but no changes in management or wheat cultivars. The projected impact on wheat production varies spatially; a larger increase is projected for temperate high rainfall regions than for moderate hot low rainfall and irrigated regions. Grain yields in warmer regions are more likely to be reduced than in cooler regions. Despite mostly positive impacts on global average grain yields, the frequency of extremely low yields (bottom 5 percentile of baseline distribution) and yield inter‐annual variability will increase under both warming scenarios for some of the hot growing locations, including locations from the second largest global wheat producer—India, which supplies more than 14% of global wheat. The projected global impact of warming <2°C on wheat production is therefore not evenly distributed and will affect regional food security across the globe as well as food prices and trade.