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Climate change affects the phenology of many species. As temperature and precipitation are thought to control autumn color change in temperate deciduous trees, it is possible that climate change might also affect the phenology of autumn colors. Using long-term data for eight tree species in a New England hardwood forest, we show that the timing and cumulative amount of autumn color are correlated with variation in temperature and precipitation at specific times of the year. A phenological model driven by accumulated cold degree-days and photoperiod reproduces most of the interspecific and interannual variability in the timing of autumn colors. We use this process-oriented model to predict changes in the phenology of autumn colors to 2099, showing that, while responses vary among species, climate change under standard IPCC projections will lead to an overall increase in the amount of autumn colors for most species.

Heating and cooling using aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) has hardly been applied outside the Netherlands, even though it could make a valuable contribution to the energy transition. The Climate-KIC project "Europe-wide Use of Energy from aquifers" - E-USE(aq) - aimed to pave the way for Europe-wide application of ATES, through the realization and monitoring of six ATES pilot plants across five different EU countries. In a preceding paper, based on preliminary results of E-USE(aq), conclusions were already drawn, demonstrating how the barriers for this form of shallow geothermal energy can be overcome, and sometimes even leveraged as opportunities. Based on final pilot project results, key economic and environmental outcomes are now presented. This paper starts with the analysis of specific technological barriers: unfamiliarity with the subsurface, presumed limited compatibility with existing energy provision systems (especially district heating), energy imbalances and groundwater contamination. The paper then shows how these barriers have been tackled, using improved site investigation and monitoring technologies to map heterogeneous subsoils. In this way ATES can cost-efficiently be included in smart grids and combined with other sources of renewable (especially solar) energy, while at the same time achieving groundwater remediation. A comparative assessment of economic and environmental impacts of the pilots is included, to demonstrate the sustainability of ATES system with different renewables and renewable-based technologies. The paper concludes with an assessment of the market application potential of ATES, including in areas with water scarcity, and a review of climate beneficial impact.

We examine the possibility of making useful climate extrapolations in inner basins. Stressing the role of the local geographic features, for a practical example we focus our attention on the Red Sea. We observe that in spite of being an enclosed and relatively small Sea, its climate conditions are heavily affected by those of the larger neighboring regions, in particular the Mediterranean and the Arabian Seas. Using existing high-resolution information of the recent decades, we use both reasoned extrapolation and knowledge of, past and future, longer term general climatic information to frame what is presently possible to assess for the Red Sea. Specifically, the northern part, influenced by the Mediterranean Sea, shows a clear decreasing trend of both the meteorological and wave conditions in the recent decades. However, within a longer span record of 100 years, this decrease appears to be part of a 70-year cycle, which may be overturning, partly at least, in the coming decades. These trends are consistent with the expectations inferred from regional climatic indices, such as North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. No similar long term trend has been found for wave, hence implicitly the wind, conditions in the southern part of the basin. As expected, some correlation exists with the typical patterns of the Indian Ocean, but without any specific indication of a future trend. We suggest that, suitably adapted for the specific local conditions and dominant patterns, similar correlation and physical patterns may exist in several of the enclosed areas of the world, opening the possibility of exploring their possible trends in the future decades.

Abstract Branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs) are increasingly used to reconstruct mean annual air temperature (MAAT) during the early Paleogene. However, the application of this proxy in coal deposits is limited and brGDGTs have only been detected in immature coals (i.e. lignites). Using samples recovered from Schoningen, Germany (∼48°N palaeolatitude), we provide the first detailed study into the occurrence and distribution of brGDGTs through a sequence of early Eocene lignites and associated interbeds. BrGDGTs are abundant and present in every sample. In comparison to modern studies, changes in vegetation type do not appear to significantly impact brGDGT distributions; however, there are subtle differences between lignites – representing peat-forming environments – and siliciclastic nearshore marine interbed depositional environments. Using the most recent brGDGT temperature calibration (MATmr) developed for soils, we generate the first continental temperature record from central-western continental Europe through the early Eocene. Lignite-derived MAAT estimates range from 23 to 26 °C while those derived from the nearshore marine interbeds exceed 20 °C. These estimates are consistent with other mid-latitude environments and model simulations, indicating enhanced mid-latitude, early Eocene warmth. In the basal part of the section studied, warming is recorded in both the lignites (∼2 °C) and nearshore marine interbeds (∼2–3 °C). This culminates in a long-term temperature maximum, likely including the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). Although this long-term warming trend is relatively well established in the marine realm, it has rarely been shown in terrestrial settings. Using a suite of model simulations we show that the magnitude of warming at Schoningen is broadly consistent with a doubling of CO2, in agreement with late Paleocene and early Eocene pCO2 estimates.

AbstractUnderstanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature – collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate – particularly precipitation and water availability – is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land‐use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local‐scale effects, and includinga prioriknowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study.