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This data set contains the essential files used as input for the analysis, intermediate files produced during the analysis, and the key output fields. The code of the analysis is available here: https://github.com/VUB-HYDR/2021_Thiery_etal_Science Input fields: - isimip.zip: Postprocessed ISIMIP2b simulation output. This data set is very similar to the data presented in Lange et al. (2020 Earth's Future) but includes selected additional impact models and scenarios (notably RCP8.5). This data set also includes the gridded population data. - GMT_50pc_manualoutput_4pathways.xlsx: Global mean temperature anomaly trajectories from the IPCC SR15 - wcde_data.xlsx: postprocessed cohort size data originally obtained from the Wittgenstein Centre Human Capital Data Explorer. - WPP2019_MORT_F16_1_LIFE_EXPECTANCY_BY_AGE_BOTH_SEXES.xlsx: Postprocessed life expectancy data originally obtained from the UNited Nations World Population Programme Intermediate files *only use if you're interested in reproducing the results*: - workspaces.zip: Postprocessed ISIMIP2b simulation output. These matlab workspaces contain data on land area annually exposed to extreme events which is stored in a format designed to speed up the analysis. - mw_isimip.mat: ISIMIP2 simulations metadata (e.g. model, gcm and rcp name per simulation) - mw_countries.mat: information on the countries used in the analysis (e.g. border polygon coordinates) - mw_exposure.mat: age-dependent exposure computed from the ISIMIP and population data - mw_exposure_pic.mat: pre-industrial control age-dependent exposure computed from the ISIMIP and population data - mw_exposure_pic_coldwaves.mat: pre-industrial control age-dependent exposure to coldwaves computed from the ISIMIP and population data Output of the analysis: - mw_output.mat: Matlab workspace containing all variables produced during the analysis presented in thepaper. Use this file if you wish to look up certain numbers or want to use the study results for further analysis.

Project: GCOS Earth Heat Inventory - A study under the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory (EHI), and presents an updated international assessment of ocean warming estimates, and new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period from 1960 to present. Summary: The file “GCOS_EHI_1960-2020_Earth_Heat_Inventory_Ocean_Heat_Content_data.nc” contains a consistent long-term Earth system heat inventory over the period 1960-2020. Human-induced atmospheric composition changes cause a radiative imbalance at the top-of-atmosphere which is driving global warming. Understanding the heat gain of the Earth system from this accumulated heat – and particularly how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system - is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This dataset is based on a study under the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to update the Earth heat inventory published in von Schuckmann et al. (2020), and presents an updated international assessment of ocean warming estimates, and new and updated estimates of heat gain in the atmosphere, cryosphere and land over the period 1960-2020. The dataset also contains estimates for global ocean heat content over 1960-2020 for different depth layers, i.e., 0-300m, 0-700m, 700-2000m, 0-2000m, 2000-bottom, which are described in von Schuckmann et al. (2022). This version includes an update of heat storage of global ocean heat content, where one additional product (Li et al., 2022) had been included to the initial estimate. The Earth heat inventory had been updated accordingly, considering also the update for continental heat content (Cuesta-Valero et al., 2023).

Today, the global food security is one of the most pressing issues for humanity, and, according to Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), the increasing demand for food is likely to grow by 70% until 2050. In this current condition and future scenario, the agricultural production is a critical factor for global food security and for facing the food security challenge, with specific reference to many African countries, where a large quantities of rice are imported from other continents. According to FAO, to face the Africa’s inability to reach self-sufficiency in rice, it is urgent “to redress to stem the trend of over-reliance on imports and to satisfy the increasing demand for rice in areas where the potential of local production resources is exploited at very low levels” The present study was undertaken to design a new method for land evaluation based on soil quality indicators and remote sensing data, to assess and map soil suitability for rice crop. Results from the investigations, performed in some areas in the northern part of the Nile Delta, were compared with the most common approaches, two parametric (the square root, Storie methods) and two qualitative (ALES and MicrioLEIS) methods. From the qualitative point of view, the results showed that: (i) all the models provided partly similar outputs related to the soil quality assessments, so that the distinction using the crop productivity played an important role, and (ii) outputs from the soil suitability models were consistent with both the satellite Sentinel-2 Normalize Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) during the crop growth and the yield production. From the quantitative point of view, the comparison of the results from the diverse approaches well fit each other, and the model, herein proposed, provided the highest performance. As a whole, a significant increasing in R2 values was provided by the model herein proposed, with R2 equal to 0.92, followed by MicroLES, Storie, ALES and Root as R2 with value equal to 0.87, 0.86, 0.84 and 0.84, respectively, with increasing percentage in R2 equal to 5%, 6% and 8%, respectively. Furthermore, the proposed model illustrated that around (i) 44.44% of the total soils of the study area are highly suitable, (ii) 44% are moderately suitable, and (iii) approximately 11.56% are unsuitable for rice due to their adverse physical and chemical soil properties. The approach herein presented can be promptly re-applied in arid region and the quantitative results obtained can be used by decision makers and regional governments.

<p>To understand how global warming can be kept well-below 2°C and even 1.5°C, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could transform in order to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. Such scenario are typically created with integrated assessment models that include a representation of the economy, and the energy, land-use, and industrial system. However, current climate change scenarios have a key weakness in that they typically focus on reaching specific climate goals in 2100 only. <br><br>This choice results in risky pathways that delay action and seemingly inevitably rely on large quantities of carbon-dioxide removal after mid-century. Here we propose a framework that more closely reflects the intentions of the UN Paris Agreement. It focusses on reaching a peak in global warming with either stabilisation or reversal thereafter. This approach provides a critical extension of the widely used Shared Socioecononomic Pathways (SSP) framework and reveals a more diverse picture: an inevitable transition period of aggressive near-term climate action to reach carbon neutrality can be followed by a variety of long-term states. It allows policymakers to explicitly consider near-term climate strategies in the context of intergenerational equity and long-term sustainability.</p>

While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

Abstract The present paper reports about the experimental characterization of a recently developed composite sorbent of water, LiCl/vermiculite, for thermal energy storage applications. The sorption ability as well as the thermal storage capacity (TSC) of the material itself were tested in a dedicated TG/DSC apparatus, under two relevant boundary conditions, namely, seasonal (SS) and daily (DS) storage applications. The dynamic behavior of the composite sorbent was tested by means of a G-LTJ apparatus in flat-plate adsorber configuration, under both SS and DS working conditions. Finally, preliminary tests on a lab-scale TES configuration were performed and reported. The main outcomes confirm that the composite is promising for TES applications, reaching the TSC up to 2.15 kJ/g under SS conditions. The stability of the composite was proven for 14 consecutive sorption/desorption cycles under conditions similar to those at real SS and DS cycles. The kinetic adsorption tests confirmed a slowdown of the sorption dynamics when passing from 1.7–2.0 mm to 2.36–2.80 mm of the grain size. Furthermore, the adsorption kinetic under SS mode is faster than of DS one. The preliminary testing in the lab-scale TES at SS cycle allowed getting TSC up to 1.25 kJ/g with a specific power up to 2.1 kW/kg.

AbstractGlobal impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.