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While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

Abstract. Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development, contrasted within- and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning, processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium- and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.

Earthworm distribution in global soils Earthworms are key components of soil ecological communities, performing vital functions in decomposition and nutrient cycling through ecosystems. Using data from more than 7000 sites, Phillips et al. developed global maps of the distribution of earthworm diversity, abundance, and biomass (see the Perspective by Fierer). The patterns differ from those typically found in aboveground taxa; there are peaks of diversity and abundance in the mid-latitude regions and peaks of biomass in the tropics. Climate variables strongly influence these patterns, and changes are likely to have cascading effects on other soil organisms and wider ecosystem functions. Science , this issue p. 480 ; see also p. 425

Abstract. Phytoplankton identification and abundance data are now commonly feeding plankton distribution databases worldwide. This study is a first attempt to compile the largest possible body of data available from different databases as well as from individual published or unpublished datasets regarding diatom distribution in the world ocean. The data obtained originate from time series studies as well as spatial studies. This effort is supported by the Marine Ecosystem Model Inter-Comparison Project (MAREMIP), which aims at building consistent datasets for the main Plankton Functional Types (PFT) in order to help validate biogeochemical ocean models by using carbon (C) biomass derived from abundance data. In this study we collected over 293 000 individual geo-referenced data points with diatom abundances from bottle and net sampling. Sampling site distribution was not homogeneous, with 58% of data in the Atlantic, 20% in the Arctic, 12% in the Pacific, 8% in the Indian and 1% in the Southern Ocean. A total of 136 different genera and 607 different species were identified after spell checking and name correction. Only a small fraction of these data were also documented for biovolumes and an even smaller fraction was converted to C biomass. As it is virtually impossible to reconstruct everyone's method for biovolume calculation, which is usually not indicated in the datasets, we decided to undertake the effort to document, for every distinct species, the minimum and maximum cell dimensions, and to convert all the available abundance data into biovolumes and C biomass using a single standardized method. Statistical correction of the database was also adopted to exclude potential outliers and suspicious data points. The final database contains 90 648 data points with converted C biomass. Diatom C biomass calculated from cell sizes spans over eight orders of magnitude. The mean diatom biomass for individual locations, dates and depths is 141.19 μg C l−1, while the median value is 11.16 μg C l−1. Regarding biomass distribution, 19% of data are in the range 0–1 μg C l−1, 29% in the range 1–10 μg C l−1, 31% in the range 10–100 μg C l−1, 18% in the range 100–1000 μg C l−1, and only 3% >1000 μg C l−1. Interestingly, less than 50 species contributed to >90% of global biomass, among which centric species were dominant. Thus, placing significant efforts on cell size measurements, process studies and C quota calculations on these species should considerably improve biomass estimates in the upcoming years. A first-order estimate of the diatom biomass for the global ocean ranges from 449 to 558 Tg C, which converts to 5 to 6 Tmol Si and to an average Si biomass turnover rate of 0.11 to 0.20 d−1. Link to the dataset: preliminary link http://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.777384.