• Energy Research
• 11. Sustainability close
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• Karlsruhe Institute of Technology close

Applied Energy, 258 ISSN:0306-2619 ISSN:1872-9118

AbstractThe sheer number of alternative technologies and measures make the optimal planning of energy system transformations highly complex, requiring decision support from mathematical optimisation models. Due to the high computational expenses of these models, only individual case studies are usually examined. In this article, the approach from the author’s PhD thesis to transfer the optimisation results from individual case studies to many other energy systems is summarised. In the first step, a typology of the energy systems to be investigated was created. Based on this typology, representative energy systems were selected and analysed in an energy system optimisation model. In the third step, the results of the representative case studies were transferred to all other energy systems. This approach was applied to a case study for determining the minimum costs of energy system transformation for all 11,131 German municipalities from 2015 to 2035 in the completely energy autonomous case. While a technical potential to achieve energy autonomy is present in 56% of the German municipalities, energy autonomy shows only low economic potential under current energy-political conditions. However, energy system costs in the autonomous case can be greatly reduced by the installation and operation of base-load technologies like deep-geothermal plants combined with district heating networks. The developed approach can be applied to any type of energy system and should help decision makers, policy makers and researchers to estimate optimal results for a variety of energy systems using practical computational expenses.

AbstractForests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.

AbstractThe European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11° EUR-11 and 0.44° EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empirical-statistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe.