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Does temperature affect economic performance? Has temperature always affected social welfare through its impact on physical and cognitive function? While many studies have explored the indirect links between climate and welfare (e.g. agricultural yield, violent conflict, or sea-level rise), few address the possibility of direct impacts operating through human physiology. This paper presents a model of labor supply under thermal stress, building on a longstanding physiological literature linking thermal stress to health and task performance. A key prediction is that effective labor supply – defined as a composite of labor hours, task performance, and effort – is decreasing in temperature deviations from the biological optimum. We use country-level panel data on population-weighted average temperature and income (1950-2005), to illustrate the potential magnitude of the effect. Using a fixed effects estimation strategy, we find that hotter-than-average years are associated with lower output per capita for already hot countries and higher output per capita for cold countries: approximately 3%-4% in both directions. We then use household data on air conditioning and heating expenditures from the US to provide further evidence in support of a physiologically based causal mechanism. This more direct causal link between climate and social welfare has important implications for both the economics of climate change and comparative development.

The ninth Sustainable Development Goal advises countries to build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation. Industry has historically been one of the most important pillars of economic and social development, but traditional resource-intensive and heavily polluting production is no longer sustainable in the face of climate change. If the path of industrial growth is not redirected immediately and effectively, reaching the target set in the 2015 Paris Agreement to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to well below two degrees celsius, will become unrealizable. The good news is that recent practices demonstrate how industry could be a big part of the solution for climate mitigation and inclusive, sustainable development. The unprecedented task presented in Paris, to decarbonize, globally introduces challenges but also enormous opportunities for industries as they seek a greener path to production while remaining globally competitive. This report helps chart that path to industrial competitiveness through policy and technology interventions that improve industrial operations. At the same time it explores ways that industrial products can become greener through public standards while companies and countries maintain, and even increase, competitiveness. The information is directed toward government leaders, policy makers, and multilateral institutions in the fields of energy, climate mitigation, and sustainable development. The report’s recommendations to policy makers are based on comprehensive case studies and quantitative and qualitative analyses.

Agriculture is the largest sector of Pakistan’s economy, contributing almost 22% to the GDP and employing almost 45% of the total labor force. The two largest food crops, wheat and rice, contribute 3.1% and 1.4% to the GDP, respectively. The objective of this research was to calculate the energy return on investment (EROI) of these crops on a national scale from 1999 to 2009 to understand the size of various energy inputs and to discuss their contributions to the energy output. Energy inputs accounted for within the cropping systems included seed, fertilizer, pesticide, human labor, tractor diesel, irrigation pump electricity and diesel, the transport of fertilizer and pesticide, and the embodied energy of tractors and irrigation pumps. The largest per-hectare energy inputs to wheat were nitrogen fertilizer (52.6%), seed (17.9%), and tractor diesel (9.1%). For rice, the largest per-hectare energy inputs were nitrogen fertilizer (32%), tube well diesel (19.8%), and pesticide (17.6%). The EROI of wheat showed a gradual downward trend between 2000 and 2006 of 21.3%. The trend was erratic thereafter. Overall, it ranged from 2.7 to 3.4 with an average of 2.9 over the 11-year study period. The overall trend was fairly consistent compared to that of rice which ranged between 3.1 and 4.9, and averaged 3.9. Rice’s EROI dipped sharply in 2002, was erratic, and remained below four until 2007. It rose sharply after that. As energy inputs increased, wheat outputs increased, but rice outputs decreased slightly. Rice responded to inputs with greater output and an increase in EROI. The same was not true for wheat, which showed little change in EROI in the face of increasing inputs. This suggests that additional investments of energy in rice production are not improving yields but for wheat, these investments are still generating benefits. The analysis shows quantitatively how fossil energy is a key driver of the Pakistani agricultural system as it traces direct and indirect energy inputs to two major food crops.

Under the “new normal”, China is facing more severe carbon emissions reduction targets. This paper estimates the carbon emission data of various provinces in China from 2008 to 2014, constructs a revised gravity model, and analyzes the network structure and effects of carbon emissions in various provinces by using social network analysis (SNA) and quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) analysis methods. The conclusions show that there are obvious spatial correlations between China’s provinces and regions in terms of carbon emissions: Tianjin, Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Guangdong are in the center of the carbon emission network, and play the role of “bridges”. Carbon emissions can be divided into four blocks: “bidirectional spillover block”, “net beneficial block”, “net spillover block” and “broker block”. The differences in the energy consumption, economic level and geographical location of the provinces have a significant impact on the spatial correlation relationship of carbon emissions. Finally, the improvement of the robustness of the overall network structure and the promotion of individual network centrality can significantly reduce the intensity of carbon emissions.

The title of my talk today is Bringing Home the Right to Housing to Advance Urban Sustainability. You may ask what is the right to housing? Why do we need to bring it home? And what does it have to do with the broader topic of today’s symposium, urban sustainability? The human right to housing, although not a formal American federal or constitutional right, provides an important legal and normative framework that can help American cities and states better balance the needs of owners and non-owners in local housing and development struggles. If American cities and states want to create sustainable urban communities that will flourish for generations, they will need the human right to housing as one legal tool in their sustainability toolkit. If we understand the term urban sustainability to include not just the sustainability of the land, air, water, and spaces that humans occupy, but also the sustainability of the inhabitants and positive social relationships in urban spaces, then the human right to housing must become a part of cities’ urban sustainability arsenal.

The main objective of the research is to assess the ability of the Ukrainian economy and its individual industries to ensure, in the conditions of economic growth, a stable reduction of natural gas consumption and, consequently, to reduce dependence on its imports. Six types of relationships were identified between the change in sectoral added value and the change in the consumption of certain energy resources, in particular natural gas. The conditions are established under which the growth of sectoral added value is accompanied by a decrease in the consumption of certain energy resources. The index of sectoral efficiency of the use of certain energy resources was proposed and a model of the decomposition of the growth rate of this indicator was constructed. Quantitative indicators of measuring economic barriers on the way to introduction of energy-saving technologies are presented. Conditions under which economic growth is accompanied by a decrease in the level of dependence of the economy on imports of energy resources are modeled. The dynamics of natural gas consumption by sectors of the Ukrainian economy is analyzed. It is proved that reduction of natural gas consumption due to increased energy efficiency occurs mainly in industries with an average value of share of the cost of purchasing this energy in the total operating expenses. An estimation is undertaken of the possibility of achieving independence of the Ukrainian economy from the import of natural gas in different scenarios of changing main parameters that determine the probability of such an achievement.

AbstractClimate change strongly affects the health of sub-Saharan African populations. Effective adaptation strategies are required in order to enhance their limited adaptive capacities. The DFG-funded Research Unit (RU) “Climate change and health in sub-Saharan Africa” unites nine research institutions from Burkina Faso, Kenya, Germany, and Switzerland that will design, implement, and evaluate four different adaptation projects in these two African countries from 2020 until 2022.First, the effectiveness of an agro-biodiversification and nutrition program will be established for the reduction of child undernutrition of climate-sensitive nutrients in rural Burkina Faso and Kenya. Two respective cluster-randomized controlled trials (cRCT) will be conducted, each consisting of 2 × 600 children. Second, another cRCT will be conducted among 2 × 300 households in rural Burkina Faso to investigate how sunlight-reflecting cool-roof coatings affect human health outcomes, including cardiovascular and heat-related outcomes. Further outcomes comprise indoor temperature, carbon footprint, and productivity. Third, an index-based weather insurance (IBWI) will be introduced in rural Burkina Faso. The effects of IBWI on childhood nutritional status, dietary behavior, and healthcare seeking will be determined in 2 × 20 villages. Fourth, microbial larviciding has been evaluated as a promising environmental control for malaria vectors in Burkina Faso. Here, the interactions between climatic factors and the effectiveness of the intervention will be tested using spatiotemporal models.