• Energy Research

The future performance of the widely abundant European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) across its ecological amplitude is uncertain. Although beech is considered drought-sensitive and thus negatively affected by drought events, scientific evidence indicating increasing drought vulnerability under climate change on a cross-regional scale remains elusive. While evaluating changes in climate sensitivity of secondary growth offers a promising avenue, studies from productive, closed-canopy forests suffer from knowledge gaps, especially regarding the natural variability of climate sensitivity and how it relates to radial growth as an indicator of tree vitality. Since beech is sensitive to drought, we in this study use a drought index as a climate variable to account for the combined effects of temperature and water availability and explore how the drought sensitivity of secondary growth varies temporally in dependence on growth variability, growth trends, and climatic water availability across the species' ecological amplitude. Our results show that drought sensitivity is highly variable and non-stationary, though consistently higher at dry sites compared to moist sites. Increasing drought sensitivity can largely be explained by increasing climatic aridity, especially as it is exacerbated by climate change and trees' rank progression within forest communities, as (co-)dominant trees are more sensitive to extra-canopy climatic conditions than trees embedded in understories. However, during the driest periods of the 20th century, growth showed clear signs of being decoupled from climate. This may indicate fundamental changes in system behavior and be early-warning signals of decreasing drought tolerance. The multiple significant interaction terms in our model elucidate the complexity of European beech's drought sensitivity, which needs to be taken into consideration when assessing this species' response to climate change.

Given the importance of climate in shaping species’ geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data—such that individuals at the cool edge of a species’ distribution should benefit from warming (the “leading edge”), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the “trailing edge”). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine ( Pinus edulis ) collected at 977 locations across the species’ distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming—the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species’ distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species’ distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

ABSTRACTWith ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree‐ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species‐dependent and less well‐known for more temperate tree species. Using a unique pan‐European tree‐ring network of 26,430 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees from 2118 sites, we applied a linear mixed‐effects modeling framework to (i) explain variation in climate‐dependent growth and (ii) project growth for the near future (2021–2050) across the entire distribution of beech. We modeled the spatial pattern of radial growth responses to annually varying climate as a function of mean climate conditions (mean annual temperature, mean annual climatic water balance, and continentality). Over the calibration period (1952–2011), the model yielded high regional explanatory power (R2 = 0.38–0.72). Considering a moderate climate change scenario (CMIP6 SSP2‐4.5), beech growth is projected to decrease in the future across most of its distribution range. In particular, projected growth decreases by 12%–18% (interquartile range) in northwestern Central Europe and by 11%–21% in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, climate‐driven growth increases are limited to around 13% of the current occurrence, where the historical mean annual temperature was below ~6°C. More specifically, the model predicts a 3%–24% growth increase in the high‐elevation clusters of the Alps and Carpathian Arc. Notably, we find little potential for future growth increases (−10 to +2%) at the poleward leading edge in southern Scandinavia. Because in this region beech growth is found to be primarily water‐limited, a northward shift in its distributional range will be constrained by water availability.

Abstract The uptake of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere through photosynthesis is accompanied by an inevitable loss of water vapor through the stomata of leaves. The rate of leaf-level CO2 assimilation per unit stomatal conductance, i.e. intrinsic water-use efficiency (WUEi), is thus a key characteristic of terrestrial ecosystem functioning that is central to the global hydroclimate system. Empirical evidence and theory suggest a positive response of forest WUE to increased CO2 levels globally. Although evidence exists for a positive effect of ecosystem nitrogen (N) inputs on WUEi, it is not clear how trends in atmospheric N deposition have affected WUEi in the past. Here we combine twentieth-century climate and nitrogen deposition with stable isotope signature in tree rings and document a WUEi trend reversal at two sites in Switzerland, that matches the timing of a trend reversal in atmospheric N deposition. Using generalized additive models (GAMs), we fitted observed WUEi time series to multiple environmental covariates. This suggested N deposition to have a significant effect on long-term WUEi at the site that was exposed to higher N deposition levels. The ratio of the increase in WUEi in response to increase in CO2 (dWUEi/dCO2) declined by 96% after 1980 (from 0.53 to 0.02) in the beech forest and declined by 72% in the spruce forest (from 0.46 to 0.13) concurrent with a sharp decline in N deposition. Using the GAM model for two scenarios, we show that had N deposition levels not declined after 1980s, WUEi would have increased more strongly in response to increasing CO2. Although the increase in N deposition was limited to the 1950–1980 decades and the signals have declined with improvements in air quality across Europe, the role of atmospheric pollution must be reconsidered in interpretation of tree ring studies and for building environmental proxies that are pivotal to understanding future sink capacity of terrestrial ecosystems in response to climate change.

This article is a Commentary on Housset et al., 218: 630–645.