• Energy Research

The United States is the world’s largest oil/gas methane emitter according to current national reports. Reducing these emissions is a top priority in the US government’s climate action plan. Here, we use a 2010 to 2019 high-resolution inversion of surface and satellite observations of atmospheric methane to quantify emission trends for individual oil/gas production regions in North America and relate them to production and infrastructure. We estimate a mean US oil/gas methane emission of 14.8 (12.4 to 16.5) Tg a−1for 2010 to 2019, 70% higher than reported by the US Environmental Protection Agency. While emissions in Canada and Mexico decreased over the period, US emissions increased from 2010 to 2014, decreased until 2017, and rose again afterward. Increases were driven by the largest production regions (Permian, Anadarko, Marcellus), while emissions in the smaller production regions generally decreased. Much of the year-to-year emission variability can be explained by oil/gas production rates, active well counts, and new wells drilled, with the 2014 to 2017 decrease driven by reduction in new wells and the 2017 to 2019 surge driven by upswing of production. We find a steady decrease in the oil/gas methane intensity (emission per unit methane gas production) for almost all major US production regions. The mean US methane intensity decreased from 3.7% in 2010 to 2.5% in 2019. If the methane intensity for the oil/gas supply chain continues to decrease at this pace, we may expect a 32% decrease in US oil/gas emissions by 2030 despite projected increases in production.

AbstractEast Asia (China, Japan, Koreas, and Mongolia) has been the world's economic engine over at least the past two decades, exhibiting a rapid increase in fossil fuel emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and has expressed the recent ambition to achieve climate neutrality by mid‐century. However, the GHG balance of its terrestrial ecosystems remains poorly constrained. Here, we present a synthesis of the three most important long‐lived greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, and N2O) budgets over East Asia during the decades of 2000s and 2010s, following a dual constraint approach. We estimate that terrestrial ecosystems in East Asia is close to neutrality of GHGs, with a magnitude of between −46.3 ± 505.9 Tg CO2eq yr−1(the top‐down approach) and −36.1 ± 207.1 Tg CO2eq yr−1(the bottom‐up approach) during 2000–2019. This net GHG sink includes a large land CO2sink (−1229.3 ± 430.9 Tg CO2 yr−1based on the top‐down approach and −1353.8 ± 158.5 Tg CO2 yr−1based on the bottom‐up approach) being offset by biogenic CH4and N2O emissions, predominantly coming from the agricultural sectors. Emerging data sources and modeling capacities have helped achieve agreement between the top‐down and bottom‐up approaches, but sizable uncertainties remain in several flux terms. For example, the reported CO2flux from land use and land cover change varies from a net source of more than 300 Tg CO2 yr−1to a net sink of ∼−700 Tg CO2 yr−1. Although terrestrial ecosystems over East Asia is close to GHG neutral currently, curbing agricultural GHG emissions and additional afforestation and forest managements have the potential to transform the terrestrial ecosystems into a net GHG sink, which would help in realizing East Asian countries' ambitions to achieve climate neutrality.

China is set to actively reduce its methane emissions in the coming decade. A comprehensive evaluation of the current situation can provide a reference point for tracking the country’s future progress. Here, using satellite and surface observations, we quantify China’s methane emissions during 2010–2017. Including newly available data from a surface network across China greatly improves our ability to constrain emissions at subnational and sectoral levels. Our results show that recent changes in China’s methane emissions are linked to energy, agricultural, and environmental policies. We find contrasting methane emission trends in different regions attributed to coal mining, reflecting region-dependent responses to China’s energy policy of closing small coal mines (decreases in Southwest) and consolidating large coal mines (increases in North). Coordinated production of coalbed methane and coal in southern Shanxi effectively decreases methane emissions, despite increased coal production there. We also detect unexpected increases from rice cultivation over East and Central China, which is contributed by enhanced rates of crop-residue application, a factor not accounted for in current inventories. Our work identifies policy drivers of recent changes in China’s methane emissions, providing input to formulating methane policy toward its climate goal.

Abstract. We apply atmospheric methane column retrievals from two different satellite instruments (Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite – GOSAT; TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument – TROPOMI) to a regional inversion framework to quantify East Asian methane emissions for 2019 at 0.5∘ × 0.625∘ horizontal resolution. The goal is to assess if GOSAT (relatively mature but sparse) and TROPOMI (new and dense) observations inform consistent methane emissions from East Asia with identically configured inversions. Comparison of the results from the two inversions shows similar correction patterns to the prior inventory in central northern China, central southern China, northeastern China, and Bangladesh, with less than 2.6 Tg a−1 differences in regional posterior emissions. The two inversions, however, disagree over some important regions, particularly in northern India and eastern China. The methane emissions inferred from GOSAT observations are 7.7 Tg a−1 higher than those from TROPOMI observations over northern India but 6.4 Tg a−1 lower over eastern China. The discrepancies between the two inversions are robust against varied inversion configurations (i.e., assimilation window and error specifications). We find that the lower methane emissions from eastern China inferred by the GOSAT inversion are more consistent with independent ground-based in situ and total column (TCCON) observations, indicating that the TROPOMI retrievals may have high XCH4 biases in this region. We also evaluate inversion results against tropospheric aircraft observations over India during 2012–2014 by using a consistent GOSAT inversion of earlier years as an intercomparison platform. This indirect evaluation favors lower methane emissions from northern India inferred by the TROPOMI inversion. We find that in this case the discrepancy in emission inference is contributed by differences in data coverage (almost no observations by GOSAT vs. good spatial coverage by TROPOMI) over the Indo-Gangetic Plain. The two inversions also differ substantially in their posterior estimates for northwestern China and neighboring Kazakhstan, which is mainly due to seasonally varying biases between GOSAT and TROPOMI XCH4 data that correlate with changes in surface albedo.