• Energy Research

AbstractTree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p < 0.001), reveals summer cooling in the years following large volcanic eruptions, and exhibits strong warming since the 1980s. Differing in their mean, variance, amplitude, sensitivity, and persistence, the ensemble members demonstrate the influence of subjectivity in the reconstruction process. We therefore recommend the routine use of ensemble reconstruction approaches to provide a more consensual picture of past climate variability.

AbstractA paradigm in paleoclimatology holds that shifts in the mean position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone were the dominant climatic mechanism controlling rainfall in the tropics during the last glacial period. We present a new paleo-rainfall reconstruction based on speleothem stable oxygen isotopes record from Colombia, which spans most of the last glacial cycle. The strength and positioning of the Intertropical Convergence Zone over northern South America were more strongly affected by summer insolation at high northern latitudes than by local insolation during the last glacial cycle, resulting in an antiphased relationship with climate in the Cariaco Basin. Our data also provide new insight into how orbital forcing amplified/dampened Intertropical Convergence Zone precipitation during millennial-scale events. During Greenland Stadial events, the Intertropical Convergence Zone was positioned close to the latitude of El Peñon, as expressed by more negative δ18O values. Greenland Interstadial events are marked by relatively high stable oxygen isotope values and reduced rainfall in the El Peñon record, suggesting a northward withdrawal of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. During some Heinrich Stadial events, and especially Heinrich Stadial 1, the Intertropical Convergence Zone must have been displaced away from its modern location near El Peñon, as conditions were very dry at both El Peñon and Cariaco.

ABSTRACTForests are essential to climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration, transpiration, and turnover. However, the quantification of climate change impacts on forest growth is uncertain and even contradictory in some regions, which is the result of spatially constrained studies. Here, we use an unprecedented network of 1.5 million tree growth records from 493 Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris stands across Europe to predict species‐specific tree growth variability from 1950 to 2016 (R2 > 0.82) and develop 21st‐century gridded projections considering different climate change scenarios. The approach demonstrates overall positive effects of warming temperatures leading to 25% projected conifer growth increases under the SPP370 scenario, but these additional carbon gains are spatially inhomogeneous and associated with geographic climate gradients. Maximum gains are projected for pines in Scandinavia, where growth trajectories indicate 50% increases by 2071–2100. Smaller but significant growth reductions are projected in Mediterranean Europe, where conifer growth shrinks by 25% in response to warmer temperatures. Our results reveal potential mitigating effects via forest carbon sequestration increases in response to global warming and stress the importance of effective forest management.

The presence of an ancient, high-elevation pine forest in the Natural Park of Sierras de Cazorla in southern Spain, including some trees reaching >700 years, stimulated efforts to develop high-resolution temperature reconstructions in an otherwise drought-dominated region. Here, we present a reconstruction of spring and fall temperature variability derived from black pine tree ring maximum densities reaching back to 1350 Coefficient of Efficiency (CE). The reconstruction is accompanied by large uncertainties resulting from low interseries correlations among the single trees and a limited number of reliable instrumental stations in the study region. The reconstructed temperature history reveals warm conditions during the early 16th and 19th centuries that were of similar magnitude to the warm temperatures recorded since the late 20th century. A sharp transition from cold conditions in the late 18th century (t1781–1810 = −1.15 °C ± 0.64 °C) to warm conditions in the early 19th century (t1818–1847 = −0.06 °C ± 0.49 °C) is centered around the 1815 Tambora eruption (t1816 = −2.1 °C ± 0.55 °C). The new reconstruction from southern Spain correlates significantly with high-resolution temperature histories from the Pyrenees located ~600 km north of the Cazorla Natural Park, an association that is temporally stable over the past 650 years (r1350–2005 > 0.3, p < 0.0001) and particularly strong in the high-frequency domain (rHF > 0.4). Yet, only a few of the reconstructed cold extremes (1453, 1601, 1816) coincide with large volcanic eruptions, suggesting that the severe cooling events in southern Spain are controlled by internal dynamics rather than external (volcanic) forcing.

Abstract Key message The temperature sensitivity of maximum latewood density measurements in pine trees from a high-elevation site in the Spanish Pyrenees increases with tree age. Detrending modulates the intensity of the effect. Abstract Tree-rings are the prime archive for high-resolution climate information over the past two millennia. However, the accuracy of annually resolved reconstructions from tree-rings can be constrained by what is known as climate signal age effects (CSAE), encompassing changes in the sensitivity of tree growth to climate over their lifespans. Here, we evaluate CSAE in Pinus uncinata from an upper tree line site in the Spanish central Pyrenees, Lake Gerber, which became a key location for reconstructing western Mediterranean summer temperatures at annual resolution. We use tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements from 50 pine trees with individual ages ranging from 7 to 406 years. For MXD, temperature sensitivity increases significantly (p < 0.01) with tree age from r = 0.31 in juvenile rings with a cambial age < 100 years to r = 0.49 in adult rings > 100 years. Similar CSAE are not detected in TRW, likely affected by the overall lower temperature signal (r TRW = 0.45 vs. r MXD = 0.81 from 1951 to 2020). The severity of CSAE is influenced by the approach used to remove ontogenetic trends, highlighting the need to assess and consider potential biases during tree-ring standardization. Our findings reveal CSAE to add uncertainty in MXD-based climate reconstructions in the Mediterranean. We recommend studying CSAE by sampling diverse age classes in dendroclimatic field campaigns.