• Energy Research

Abstract Increasing global food demand will require more food production without further exceeding the planetary boundaries, while at the same time adapting to climate change. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models, with sink-source improved traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes to quantify potential yield gains and associated N requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The sink-source traits emerged as climate neutral with 16% yield increase with current N fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential, a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century RCP8.5 climate scenario, fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil N availability and N use efficiency, along with yield potential.

Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) crops are exposed to warm nights during their growing seasons and this trend is unlikely to change. The aim of this work was to evaluate the effect of higher post-anthesis night temperatures on field-grown crop yield, focusing on final grain weight determination. Experiments combined: (i) two well-adapted crops with similar phenology: bread wheat and two-row malting barley, under (ii) two temperature regimes: ambient and high night temperatures from 10 days after anthesis to physiological maturity during (iii) two contrasting growing seasons in terms of radiation and temperature: late sowing in 2011 and early sowing in 2013. The night temperature increase (ca. 4.1 °C) was achieved using purpose-built heating chambers placed on the crop at 7 pm and removed at 7 am every day during the heating period. Across growing seasons and crops, the average minimum temperature during that period ranged from 14.3 °C to 21.9 °C. Thousand grain weight was reduced by ca. 3% per °C of night temperature increase, similarly for wheat and barley, causing a grain yield reduction of ca. 4% per °C. An accelerated development under high night temperatures led to a shorter effective grain filling period, reducing the final grain weight. The lack of consistent impact on source availability between crops and seasons, measured as senescence and stem water soluble carbohydrates, as well as a similar impact in magnitude and direction on individual grain weight for different grain positions along wheat or barley spikes, suggest that the negative effects of warm nights on grain weight were directly related to processes within the grain itself.

Abstract Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 ± 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges.

Increasing global food demand will require more food production1 without further exceeding the planetary boundaries2 while simultaneously adapting to climate change3. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models with improved sink and source traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes4 to quantify potential yield gains and associated nitrogen requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved sink and source traits increased yield by 16% with current nitrogen fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential-a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil nitrogen availability and nitrogen use efficiency, along with yield potential.

AbstractFurther improvements in wheat yields are critical, for which increases in grain number would be required. In the recent past, higher grain number was achieved through increased growth of the juvenile spikes before anthesis, due to the reduction in stem growth. As current cultivars have already an optimum height, alternatives must be identified for further increasing grain number. One of them is increasing fruiting efficiency (grains set per unit of spike dry weight at anthesis). Fruiting efficiency is the final outcome of the fate of floret development and differences in this trait within modern cultivars would be related to higher survival of floret primordia. Then there are two alternative physiological pathways to improve fruiting efficiency by allowing a normal development of most vulnerable floret primordia: an increased allocation of assimilates for the developing florets before anthesis, or reduced demand of the florets for maintaining their normal development. Both alternatives may be possible, and it might be critical to recognize which of them is the actual cause of differences in fruiting efficiency. When considering this trait in breeding we must be aware of potential trade‐offs and therefore it must be avoided that increases in fruiting efficiency be constitutively related to decreases in either spike dry weight at anthesis or grain weight. In this review we described fruiting efficiency and its physiological bases, analyzing genetic variation and considering potential drawbacks that must be taken into account to avoid increases in fruiting efficiency being compensated by other traits.