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Evidence for increasing global wheat yield potential

handle: 10261/286709 , 11388/355191 , 11388/329749 , 2158/1304741 , 10883/22405 , 10568/129183
Abstract Wheat is the most widely grown food crop, with 761 Mt produced globally in 2020. To meet the expected grain demand by mid-century, wheat breeding strategies must continue to improve upon yield-advancing physiological traits, regardless of climate change impacts. Here, the best performing doubled haploid (DH) crosses with an increased canopy photosynthesis from wheat field experiments in the literature were extrapolated to the global scale with a multi-model ensemble of process-based wheat crop models to estimate global wheat production. The DH field experiments were also used to determine a quantitative relationship between wheat production and solar radiation to estimate genetic yield potential. The multi-model ensemble projected a global annual wheat production of 1050 ± 145 Mt due to the improved canopy photosynthesis, a 37% increase, without expanding cropping area. Achieving this genetic yield potential would meet the lower estimate of the projected grain demand in 2050, albeit with considerable challenges.
- University of Sassari Italy
- Zhejiang Ocean University China (People's Republic of)
- King’s University United States
- Beijing Normal University China (People's Republic of)
- Michigan State University United States
Economics, Agricultural engineering, Macroeconomics, Plant Science, Grain Number, ruokaturva, kasvintuotanto, Agricultural and Biological Sciences, wheat, sato, genetics, GE1-350, Production (economics), yield increase, TD1-1066, Factors Affecting Maize Yield and Lodging Resistance, Spring Wheat, Physics, crop model ensemble; global food security Supplementary material for this article is available online; radiation use efficiency; wheat potential yield; yield increase, Letter ; yield increase ; radiation use efficiency ; wheat potential yield ; crop model ensemble ; global food security, Life Sciences, ta4111, Winter wheat, climate change, vehnä, crop modelling, Biomass Accumulation, model ensembles, Global food security, Science, QC1-999, Yield (engineering), Environmental science, yield increases, Genetics, Grain yield, Biology, Polyploid Wheat, global food security, yield increase; radiation use efficiency; wheat potential yield; crop model ensemble; global food security, crop model ensembl, Agronomy, Materials science, food supply, Wheat potential yield, FOS: Biological sciences, Solar-Radiation, Yield increase, Yield Increase, Agronomy and Crop Science, Crop Population, Climate, Cropping, Crop Model Ensemble, Crop, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, 630, Engineering, Genetic Diversity and Breeding of Wheat, [SDV.BV] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Crop model ensemble, Photosynthesis, Radiation use efficiency, Ecology, Q, Food Demand, Agriculture, Genetic Architecture of Quantitative Traits, Wheat, Metallurgy, Maize Yield, ddc:570, Radiation Use Efficiency, wheat potential yield, Crop Model Ensemble ; Global Food Security Supplementary Material For This Article Is Available Online ; Radiation Use Efficiency ; Wheat Potential Yield ; Yield Increase, Global Food Security, crop model ensemble, global food security Supplementary material for this article is available online, Wheat Potential Yield, Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Crop yield, Institut für Biochemie und Biologie, photosynthesis, radiation use efficiency, Canopy, Botany, food security, crops, Environmental sciences, breeding, Grain Quality, ddc: ddc:
Economics, Agricultural engineering, Macroeconomics, Plant Science, Grain Number, ruokaturva, kasvintuotanto, Agricultural and Biological Sciences, wheat, sato, genetics, GE1-350, Production (economics), yield increase, TD1-1066, Factors Affecting Maize Yield and Lodging Resistance, Spring Wheat, Physics, crop model ensemble; global food security Supplementary material for this article is available online; radiation use efficiency; wheat potential yield; yield increase, Letter ; yield increase ; radiation use efficiency ; wheat potential yield ; crop model ensemble ; global food security, Life Sciences, ta4111, Winter wheat, climate change, vehnä, crop modelling, Biomass Accumulation, model ensembles, Global food security, Science, QC1-999, Yield (engineering), Environmental science, yield increases, Genetics, Grain yield, Biology, Polyploid Wheat, global food security, yield increase; radiation use efficiency; wheat potential yield; crop model ensemble; global food security, crop model ensembl, Agronomy, Materials science, food supply, Wheat potential yield, FOS: Biological sciences, Solar-Radiation, Yield increase, Yield Increase, Agronomy and Crop Science, Crop Population, Climate, Cropping, Crop Model Ensemble, Crop, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, 630, Engineering, Genetic Diversity and Breeding of Wheat, [SDV.BV] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Crop model ensemble, Photosynthesis, Radiation use efficiency, Ecology, Q, Food Demand, Agriculture, Genetic Architecture of Quantitative Traits, Wheat, Metallurgy, Maize Yield, ddc:570, Radiation Use Efficiency, wheat potential yield, Crop Model Ensemble ; Global Food Security Supplementary Material For This Article Is Available Online ; Radiation Use Efficiency ; Wheat Potential Yield ; Yield Increase, Global Food Security, crop model ensemble, global food security Supplementary material for this article is available online, Wheat Potential Yield, Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Crop yield, Institut für Biochemie und Biologie, photosynthesis, radiation use efficiency, Canopy, Botany, food security, crops, Environmental sciences, breeding, Grain Quality, ddc: ddc:
citations This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).30 popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).Top 10% impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.Top 10% visibility views 46 download downloads 93 - 46views93downloads
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