• Energy Research

AbstractAnomalous conditions in the oceans and atmosphere have the potential to be used to enhance the predictability of flood events, enabling earlier warnings to reduce risk. In the Amazon basin, extreme flooding is consistently attributed to warmer or cooler conditions in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans, with some evidence linking floods to other hydroclimatic drivers such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). This review evaluates the impact of several hydroclimatic drivers on rainfall and river discharge regimes independently, aggregating all the information of previous studies to provide an up‐to‐date depiction of what we currently know and do not know about how variations in climate impact flooding in the Amazon. Additionally, 34 major flood events that have occurred since 1950 in the Amazon and their attribution to climate anomalies are documented and evaluated. This review finds that despite common agreement within the literature describing the relationship between phases of climate indices and hydrometeorological variables, results linking climate anomalies and flood hazard are often limited to correlation rather than to causation, while the understanding of their usefulness for flood forecasting is weak. There is a need to understand better the ocean–atmosphere response mechanisms that led to previous flood events. In particular, examining the oceanic and atmospheric conditions preceding individual hydrological extremes, as opposed to composite analysis, could provide insightful information into the magnitude and spatial distribution of anomalous sea surface temperatures required to produce extreme floods. Importantly, such an analysis could provide meaningful thresholds on which to base seasonal flood forecasts.

Abstract. Extreme flooding impacts millions of people that live within the Amazon floodplain. Global hydrological models (GHMs) are frequently used to assess and inform the management of flood risk, but knowledge on the skill of available models is required to inform their use and development. This paper presents an intercomparison of eight different GHMs freely available from collaborators of the Global Flood Partnership (GFP) for simulating floods in the Amazon basin. To gain insight into the strengths and shortcomings of each model, we assess their ability to reproduce daily and annual peak river flows against gauged observations at 75 hydrological stations over a 19-year period (1997–2015). As well as highlighting regional variability in the accuracy of simulated streamflow, these results indicate that (a) the meteorological input is the dominant control on the accuracy of both daily and annual maximum river flows, and (b) groundwater and routing calibration of Lisflood based on daily river flows has no impact on the ability to simulate flood peaks for the chosen river basin. These findings have important relevance for applications of large-scale hydrological models, including analysis of the impact of climate variability, assessment of the influence of long-term changes such as land-use and anthropogenic climate change, the assessment of flood likelihood, and for flood forecasting systems.

Abstract. Flooding in the Amazon basin is frequently attributed to modes of large-scale climate variability, but little attention is paid to how these modes influence the timing and duration of floods despite their importance to early warning systems and the significant impacts that these flood characteristics can have on communities. In this study, river discharge data from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS 2.1) and observed data at 58 gauging stations are used to examine whether positive or negative phases of several Pacific and Atlantic indices significantly alter the characteristics of river flows throughout the Amazon basin (1979–2015). Results show significant changes in both flood magnitude and duration, particularly in the north-eastern Amazon for negative El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases when the sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly is positioned in the central tropical Pacific. This response is not identified for the eastern Pacific index, highlighting how the response can differ between ENSO types. Although flood magnitude and duration were found to be highly correlated, the impacts of large-scale climate variability on these characteristics are non-linear; some increases in annual flood maxima coincide with decreases in flood duration. The impact of flood timing, however, does not follow any notable pattern for all indices analysed. Finally, observed and simulated changes are found to be much more highly correlated for negative ENSO phases compared to the positive phase, meaning that GloFAS struggles to accurately simulate the differences in flood characteristics between El Niño and neutral years. These results have important implications for both the social and physical sectors working towards the improvement of early warning action systems for floods.

We analyzed 19 annual Landsat Thematic Mapper images from 1984 to 2011 to determine changes of the glaciated surface and snow line elevation in six mountain areas of the Cordillera Huaytapallana range in Peru. In contrast to other Peruvian mountains, glacier retreat in these mountains has been poorly documented, even though this is a heavily glaciated area. These glaciers are the main source of water for the surrounding lowlands, and melting of these glaciers has triggered several outburst floods. During the 28-year study period, there was a 55% decrease in the surface covered by glaciers and the snowline moved upward in different regions by 93 to 157. m. Moreover, several new lakes formed in the recently deglaciated areas. There was an increase in precipitation during the wet season (October-April) over the 28-year study period. The significant increase in maximum temperatures may be related to the significant glacier retreat in the study area. There were significant differences in the wet season temperatures during El Niño (warmer) and La Niña (colder) years. Although La Niña years were generally more humid than El Niño years, these differences were not statistically significant. Thus, glaciers tended to retreat at a high rate during El Niño years, but tended to be stable or increase during La Niña years, although there were some notable deviations from this general pattern. Climate simulations for 2021 to 2050, based on the most optimistic assumptions of greenhouse gas concentrations, forecast a continuation of climate warming at the same rate as documented here. Such changes in temperature might lead to a critical situation for the glaciers of the Cordillera Huaytapallana, and may significantly impact the water resources, ecology, and natural hazards of the surrounding areas. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. This work was supported by funding from the Spanish Research Council (research project I-COOP0089: “Glacier retreat in the Cordillera Blanca and Cordillera Huaytapallana in Peru: Evidences and Impacts on local population”) Peer Reviewed

Climate-related phenomena in Peru have been slowly but continuously changing in recent years beyond historical variability. These include sea surface temperature increases, irregular precipitation patterns and reduction of glacier-covered areas. In addition, climate scenarios show amplification in rainfall variability related to the warmer conditions associated with El Niño events. Extreme weather can affect human health, increase shocks and stresses to the health systems, and cause large economic losses. In this article, we study the characteristics of El Niño events in Peru, its health and economic impacts and we discuss government preparedness for this kind of event, identify gaps in response, and provide evidence to inform adequate planning for future events and mitigating impacts on highly vulnerable regions and populations. This is the first case study to review the impact of a Coastal El Niño event on Peru’s economy, public health, and governance. The 2017 event was the third strongest El Niño event according to literature, in terms of precipitation and river flooding and caused important economic losses and health impacts. At a national level, these findings expose a need for careful consideration of the potential limitations of policies linked to disaster prevention and preparedness when dealing with El Niño events. El Niño-related policies should be based on local-level risk analysis and efficient preparedness measures in the face of emergencies.