• Energy Research

AbstractFor efficient operation, solar power operators often require generation forecasts for multiple sites with varying data availability. Many proposed methods for forecasting solar irradiance / solar power production formulate the problem as a time-series, using current observations to generate forecasts. This necessitates a real-time data stream and enough historical observations at every location for these methods to be deployed. In this paper, we propose the use of Global methods to train generalised models. Using data from 20 locations distributed throughout the UK, we show that it is possible to learn models without access to data for all locations, enabling them to generate forecasts for unseen locations. We show a single Global model trained on multiple locations can produce more consistent and accurate results across locations. Furthermore, by leveraging weather observations and measurements from other locations we show it is possible to create models capable of accurately forecasting irradiance at locations without any real-time data. We apply our approaches to both classical and state-of-the-art Machine Learning methods, including a Transformer architecture. We compare models using satellite imagery or point observations (temperature, pressure, etc.) as weather data. These methods could facilitate planning and optimisation for both newly deployed solar farms and domestic installations from the moment they come online.

Abstract The decentralization of electrical power production is conducive to a more effective and harmonious use of energy resources. For this reason, photovoltaic grid-connected plants (PVGCPs) as well as other renewable energy sources have come into the spotlight in recent years since they improve the supply of electrical power to the grid. The optimization of PVGCP design has been previously addressed in terms of electrical losses with successful results. However, PVGCP performance can be further enhanced if other characteristics, such as power capacity, are taken into consideration. This paper focuses on the optimization of the design of photovoltaic plants with solar tracking. The research described had the following two objectives: (i) the maximization of power capacity; (ii) the minimization of electrical losses. This problem was solved with multi-objective evolutionary algorithms, which have proved to be powerful optimization techniques that are useful for a wide range of objectives. This paper focuses on the NSGA-II and SPEA2, two well-known multi-objective algorithms, and describes how they were used to optimize PVGCPs. The resulting sets of solutions provide the flexibility and adaptability needed to build a PVGCP. These algorithms were thus found to be an effective tool for enhancing PVGCP performance.

As energy demands and costs rise, enhancing energy efficiency in Food and Drink Cold Storage (FDCS) rooms is important for reducing expenses and achieving environmental sustainability ambitions. Forecasting electricity use in FDCSs can help optimise operations and minimise energy consumption by enabling door opening frequency, maintenance, and restocking to be better scheduled. Although Machine Learning (ML) has been applied to forecast energy use in various domains such as commercial and residential buildings, its use in addressing the specific challenges of FDCS, which require stringent temperature and humidity control for food safety and quality, has been less explored. This work addresses this gap by proposing a tailored ML pipeline for FDCS settings capable of predicting one-week into the future and is suitable for small dataset sizes. It provides comparative analysis by employing two distinct real-world FDCS datasets for training, validation, and testing of the developed models. Moreover, in contrast to existing studies predominantly concerned with energy consumption prediction, this study includes the forecasting of indoor temperature and humidity, given their essential role in preserving the quality and longevity of stored food items. Ensemble-based methods, particularly Random Forest, excelled and achieved the lowest electricity MAEs of 150.65 and 384.88 for each dataset, respectively.

Predict+Optimize frameworks integrate forecasting and optimization to address real-world challenges such as renewable energy scheduling, where variability and uncertainty are critical factors. This paper benchmarks solutions from the IEEE-CIS Technical Challenge on Predict+Optimize for Renewable Energy Scheduling, focusing on forecasting renewable production and demand and optimizing energy cost. The competition attracted 49 participants in total. The top-ranked method employed stochastic optimization using LightGBM ensembles, and achieved at least a 2% reduction in energy costs compared to deterministic approaches, demonstrating that the most accurate point forecast does not necessarily guarantee the best performance in downstream optimization. The published data and problem setting establish a benchmark for further research into integrated forecasting-optimization methods for energy systems, highlighting the importance of considering forecast uncertainty in optimization models to achieve cost-effective and reliable energy management. The novelty of this work lies in its comprehensive evaluation of Predict+Optimize methodologies applied to a real-world renewable energy scheduling problem, providing insights into the scalability, generalizability, and effectiveness of the proposed solutions. Potential applications extend beyond energy systems to any domain requiring integrated forecasting and optimization, such as supply chain management, transportation planning, and financial portfolio optimization.