• Energy Research

Significance Climate extremes are major drivers of long-term forest growth trends, but we still lack appropriate knowledge to anticipate their effects. Here, we apply a conceptual framework to assess the vulnerability of Circum-Mediterranean Abies refugia in response to climate warming, droughts, and heat waves. Using a tree-ring network and a process-based model, we assess the future vulnerability of Mediterranean Abies forests. Models anticipate abrupt growth reductions for the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing forest die-off in the past decades. However, growth would increase in moist refugia. Circum-Mediterranean fir forests currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable according to the climate model predictions for the late 21st century.

In the context of climate change, the stable isotope analysis of tree rings may play a crucial role in deciphering the eco-physiological mechanisms underlying forest decline and dieback phenomena. However, this technique is often considered expensive, time-consuming, and with several methodological constraints. Specifically, milling and transferring the material from jars to vials during the different steps of sample preparation involve risk of contamination among samples and loss of sample material. When dealing with declining trees (i.e., trees affected by loss of vitality with strong percentage of defoliation and reduction in growth) and trees subjected to extreme events or negative pointer years (characterized by extremely narrow ring) the sample preparation is particularly difficult because of scarce amount of wood material. In such a case, pooling rings from several years to achieve the minimum weight of wood is often necessary, thus losing information at the annual resolution. In order to overcome such limitations, we developed a novel protocol for quick and accurate whole-wood pre-processing, testing it on oak tree rings of different widths taken from living trees. The main novelty introduced by our protocol was freezing tree-ring samples at −80 °C and milling multiple samples at a time by using a 24-tube plate. The results showed that our novel simplified protocol significantly reduced the pre-processing time with respect to the standard protocol (12 vs. 284 sec/sample), while achieving the same wood particle size, limiting the loss of wood material and reducing the risk of contamination among samples.

AbstractThe mechanistic pathways connecting ocean-atmosphere variability and terrestrial productivity are well-established theoretically, but remain challenging to quantify empirically. Such quantification will greatly improve the assessment and prediction of changes in terrestrial carbon sequestration in response to dynamically induced climatic extremes. The jet stream latitude (JSL) over the North Atlantic-European domain provides a synthetic and robust physical framework that integrates climate variability not accounted for by atmospheric circulation patterns alone. Surface climate impacts of north-south summer JSL displacements are not uniform across Europe, but rather create a northwestern-southeastern dipole in forest productivity and radial-growth anomalies. Summer JSL variability over the eastern North Atlantic-European domain (5-40E) exerts the strongest impact on European beech, inducing anomalies of up to 30% in modelled gross primary productivity and 50% in radial tree growth. The net effects of JSL movements on terrestrial carbon fluxes depend on forest density, carbon stocks, and productivity imbalances across biogeographic regions.

Science of The Total Environment, 615 ISSN:0048-9697 ISSN:1879-1026

AbstractThe growth of past, present, and future forests was, is and will be affected by climate variability. This multifaceted relationship has been assessed in several regional studies, but spatially resolved, large-scale analyses are largely missing so far. Here we estimate recent changes in growth of 5800 beech trees (Fagus sylvatica L.) from 324 sites, representing the full geographic and climatic range of species. Future growth trends were predicted considering state-of-the-art climate scenarios. The validated models indicate growth declines across large region of the distribution in recent decades, and project severe future growth declines ranging from −20% to more than −50% by 2090, depending on the region and climate change scenario (i.e. CMIP6 SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Forecasted forest productivity losses are most striking towards the southern distribution limit of Fagus sylvatica, in regions where persisting atmospheric high-pressure systems are expected to increase drought severity. The projected 21st century growth changes across Europe indicate serious ecological and economic consequences that require immediate forest adaptation.