• Energy Research

This study examined the carbon cycling dynamics in the tropical Atlantic Ocean from 1985 to 2023, focusing on factors influencing the surface partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2), freshwater input, total alkalinity (ALK), total dissolved carbon (TCO2), and pH levels. The time series data revealed significant trends, with average pCO2 concentrations rising from approximately 350 μatm in the early 1990s to over 400 μatm by 2023. The TCO2 levels increased from about 2000 μmol/kg to 2200 μmol/kg, while ALK rose from approximately 2300 μmol/kg to 2500 μmol/kg. This increase highlights the ocean’s role as a carbon sink, particularly in areas with high biological productivity and upwelling where TCO2 also rose. This study employed Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) to identify variability modes and understand spatial patterns of pCO2. Freshwater dynamics significantly affect TCO2 concentrations, particularly in coastal regions, where pH can shift from 8.2 to 7.9, exacerbating acidification. Rising sea surface temperatures have been linked to elevated pCO2 values. These findings support the need for ongoing monitoring and effective management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change and ensure the sustainability of marine resources. This study documented the long-term trends in tropical Atlantic CO2 parameters linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).

The Port-Bouët Bay shoreline is threatened by extreme sea level (ESL) events, which result from the combination of storm tide, wave run-up, and sea level rise (SLR). This study provides comprehensive scenarios of current and future ESLs at the local scale along the bay to understand the evolution of the phenomenon and promote local adaptation. The methodological steps involve first reconstructing historical storm tide and wave run-up data using a hydrodynamic model (D-flow FM) and the empirical model of Stockdon et al. Second, the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model fitted to the Peaks-Over-Thresholds (POT) method is applied to the data to calculate extreme return levels. Third, we combine the extreme storm tide and wave run-up using the joint probability method to obtain the current ESLs. Finally, the current ESLs are integrated with recent SLR projections to provide future ESL estimates. The results show that the current ESLs are relatively high, with 100-year return levels of 4.37 m ± 0.51, 4.97 m ± 0.57, and 4.48 m ± 0.5 at Vridi, Petit-Bassam, and Sogefiha respectively. By end-century, under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the future SLR is expected to increase the current ESLs by 0.49 m, 0.62 m, and 0.84 m, respectively. This could lead to a more frequent occurrence of the current 100-year return period, happening once every 2 years by 2100, especially under SSP5-8.5. The developed SLR scenarios can be used to assess the potential coastal flood risk in the study area for sustainable and effective coastal management and planning.

AbstractStratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering (SAG) is proposed to offset global warming; however, the use of this approach can an impact on the hydrological cycle. We used simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (G3 simulation) to analyze the impacts of SAG on precipitation (P) and to determine its responsible causes in West Africa and Sahel region. CMIP5 historical data were first validated, the results obtained are consistent with observational data. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway scenario RCP4.5, a slight increase is found in the West Africa Region relative to present‐day climate. The dynamic processes especially, the monsoon shifts are responsible for this precipitation change. Under RCP4.5, during the monsoon period, reductions in P are 0.86%, 0.80% relative to the present‐day climate in the Northern and Southern Sahel, respectively, while precipitation is increased by 1.04% in the West African Region. Under SAG, we find a 3.71% decrease of precipitation in the West African Region while the precipitation decrease is 17.4% and 8.47% respectively in the North Sahel and South Sahel. This decrease in monsoon precipitation is mainly explained by changes in dynamics, which lead to weakened monsoon circulation and a shift in the distribution of monsoon precipitation. This result suggests that SAG deployment to balance all warming can be harmful to rainfall in WAR if the amount of SO2 to be injected into this tropical area is not taken into consideration.

Ndour, A.; Ba, K.; Almar, A.; Almeida, P.; Sall, M.; Diedhiou; P.M., Floc'h, F.; Daly, C.; Grandjean, P.; Boivin, J-P; Castelle, B.; Marieu, V.; Biausque, M.; Detandt, G.; Tomety Folly, S.; Bonou, F.; Capet, X.; Garlan, T., Marchesiello, P.; Benshila, R.; Diaz, H.; Bergsma, E.; Sadio, M.; Sakho, I., and Sy, B.A., 2020. On the natural and anthropogenic drivers of the Senegalese (West Africa) low coast evolution: Saint Louis Beach 2016 COASTVAR experiment and 3D modeling of short term coastal protection measures. In: Malvarez, G. and Navas, F. (eds.), Global Coastal Issues of 2020. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 95, pp. 583-587. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208.West Africa's low and densely populated coasts crystallize most of the environmental and societal problems and resulting vulnerability. It is becoming urgent to document this coast and the natural and anthropogenic forces to understand its evolution. Saint Louis is a historic (World Heritage) city located on the Langue de Barbarie, a 10 km sandspit at the mouth of the Senegal River. Because of its location, it is vulnerable (erosion, flooding) to river and ocean variability. This intermediate barred microtidal beach is located in a storm-free intertropical environment, but is exposed to distant oblique energetic waves from high latitudes, causing one of the highest coastal drifts in the world (∼800,000 m3/year). As part of the COASTVAR project, an intensive international field experiment was conducted in Saint Louis from 4 to 13 December 2016 to quantify the natural protective role played by the sandbar, coastal currents and transient exchanges with the inner shelf. Many instruments have been deployed to measure waves, currents, bathymetry and topography. This article provides an overview on the objectives of the experiment, the deployment and the first results of the modeling of coastal protection strategy.

AbstractThis study assesses changes in extremes precipitation and temperature in West Africa under a high greenhouse gas scenario, that is, a representative concentration pathway 8.5, and under a scenario of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) deployment using the NCAR Community Earth System Model version 1. We use results from the Geoengineering Large Ensemble simulations (GLENS), where SAG is deployed to keep global surface temperatures at present day values. This impact study evaluates changes in some of the extreme climate indices recommended by the Expert Team Monitoring on Climate Change Detection and Indices. The results indicate that SAG would effectively keep surface temperatures at present day‐conditions across a range of indices compared to the control (CRTL) period, including Cold days, Cold nights and Cold Spell Duration Indicator which show no significant increase compared to the CRTL period. Regarding the extremes precipitation, GLENS shows mostly a statistically significant increase in annual precipitation and statistically significant decrease in the number of heavy and very heavy precipitation events relative to the CRTL period in some regions of Gulf of Guinea. In the Sahel, we notice a mix of statistically significant increase and decrease in Max 1‐day and Max 5‐days precipitation amount relative to the CRTL period at the end of the 21st century when large amounts of SAG has been applied. The changes in extreme precipitation indices are linked to changes in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, NINO3.4 and Indian Ocean Dipole and these changes in extreme precipitation are driven by change in near surface specific humidty and atmospheric circulation.

AbstractRegular and long-term monitoring of coastal areas is a prerequisite to avoiding or mitigating the impacts of climate and human-driven hazards. In Africa, where populations and infrastructures are particularly exposed to risk, there is an urgent need to establish coastal monitoring, as observations are generally scarce. Measurement campaigns and very high-resolution satellite imagery are costly, while freely available satellite observations have temporal and spatial resolutions that are not suited to capture the event scale. To address the gap, a network of low-cost, multi-variable, shore-based video camera systems has been installed along the African coasts. Here, we present this network and its principle of sharing data, methods, and results obtained, building toward the implementation of a common integrated coastal management policy between countries. Further, we list new contributions to the understanding of still poorly documented African beaches’ evolution, waves, and sea level impacts. This network is a solid platform for the development of inter-disciplinary observations for resources and ecology (such as fisheries, and sargassum landing), erosion and flooding, early warning systems during extreme events, and science-based coastal infrastructure management for sustainable future coasts.